EastonSN+

Snowman for 18z EURO?

Would be hilarious be if this ends up a northern New England event

Oh the humanity

Nam is all over the place from run to run

Trend lately due to the NAO is south so prolly will not be as tight to the coast.

True. Also just looked GFS v16 gives us 3.

For us SW CT folks we need Canadian suite to be correct with the 4 to 5. American and Ukmet only 1 to 2 down here.

Lack of precip.

12 z NAM looks terrible.

Thanks for this. What a great winter that was for SW CT complete with an epic March ( only downside was the blizzard getting 7 instead of 30)

With the rising NAO and PNA beginning of February we may have our best shot at something. May not work out but that is usually our best signal for a snowstorm.

Somewhat resembles EURO weeklies for same period. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101210000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202102220000

NAM looks better for first storm.

The AO is supposed to stay negative FWIW. Also apparently the vortex is getting hit yet again.

I hope trending. Do not know if more north members than 6z.

Thanks. I take this as 5 members skewing the mean north while majority are south and weaker.

Stole from MA forum.

Looks like more of a temp thing on the ukmet.

Thanks. Do you have the EPS as well? Hoping matches GEFS. Thanks

Have to feel good for the MA. I believe the last time they had more snow than our region was 2009 2010. The below is for the first storm.

Question. Do the EPS tellies have a rising NAO as well? Perhaps the reason the GFS gets the late week storm closer to us is due to the fact that it has a rising NAO. I am assuming the EPS keeps the NAO negative hence keeping the storm south.

I think the snowstorm of Jan 2012 is a great example if I am not mistaken. In a sea of warmth we got a moderate to heavy snow even from a "trailing wave" which followed a cutter I believe.

I take the below as a HUGE positive. We need a reshuffle. Would like to note that AO stays negative and PNA rises to neutral.

Thanks Don. If global warming is to blame (not saying it is but IF), it's amazing how all global warming effects are working against us. Hadley Cell Indian ocean temps Atlantic SSTs Extreme Jet (not sure if Hadley Cell is causing this) Pretty remarkable nothing so far has helped us

I hate to say it but the south based NAO is what did us in. We had a positive PNA first half of Jan and the NAO killed our chances. Then we had a negative EPO with cold air and instead of overrunning events the south based NAO is shredding the events. We need the NAO to move North. Will be interesting to see if the MA ends up with more snow than us. The polar vortex is taking another hit. This is bad as it will reinforce the negative NAO. What I do not understand is why it's stuck in a south based location. I may end up with less snow than last year!!!! Would be the first back to back ratter for as long as I have been tracking weather. March is always a wildcard so we shall see.