EastonSN+

They always favor those areas, however NYC can easily pick up 4 to 8 before mixing in these type of events. November 2018 NYC had 6.5 before changeover. March 2011 had 4.5 I am missing a thousand. But yes generally the city gets 1 to 3 before a changeover.

Yeah we are stuck at level 3 currently. Shorter wavelengths in March also change the downstream effects.

One thing I have noticed is the season outcome has followed the GEFS MJO plot like a puppy dog. If true we should be in phase 7 by the 10, with phase 8 potentially by the 20th. It nailed the January pattern with phase 8 recently. It IS taking bits sweet time in 3. Conscious that there are other environment influences. The hated wheely chart.

Compression again?

GEFS and GEPS coming more in line. Not liking the SE ridge. Again does align with the MJO. We shall see.

GFS with a solid overrunning event. SNE 3 to 5 before ice. CNE 6 to 10.

I know everyone hates the wheel charts for the MJO. However it explains the difference between EPS and GEFS. EPS drops into the COD while GEFS is robust into phase 5 by March 4th. Hence the SE ridge on the GEFS.

GEPS looks a bit better than GEFS wrt the SE Ridge. Maybe the best compromise right now between the EPS and GEFS?

Thanks. I am close the south coast which would be problematic for me.

End of GEFS run. Looks a bit different than the EPS from yesterday. Anyone have the end of the EPS run today?

I guess this is a good signal for overrunning? Each run the SE ridge is a little stronger.

Meh

This is an interesting look.

This is an interesting look

Forky's active. Think that means Forky's interested in this pattern.

Thanks, If we get a couple good overrunning events I think we can surpass 2015

I am in a local snow hole. Only 18.5 in Easton.

Definitely a good look starting late next week. Overrunning can be messy and at times frustrating, however constant tracking is a great thing for us hobbyist. 1 to 6 inch type mixed events across the forum with a lot of cold following the storms can create a mean pack. Let's see if it pans out. I love the fact that the good pattern seems to be moving up in time (earlier so better pack retention as opposed to Mid March for snow lovers, potentially earlier start of a warmer pattern for waministas).

Part of LI did well on the 2nd event. Up here lost power for 3 days.

I remember the snow event in late March 2016 got me to average annual snowfall. Needed 3 and got exactly that. Other than that event was mild. Best of both worlds.

March 2004 and 2005 we're very snowy and cold. March 2000 had the big bust but that was poor luck.

Forgot March 2007 had two snow/sleet storms frigid. Snowed till April 2003.

March 2009 was another good one.

Heck we even had a good snowstorm in March 2011. It's the forgotten snowstorm as everyone seems to think winter ended after the epic 5 week period.

I feel way more confident in snowy Marches than December. 2013. 2015. 2017. 2018. 2019.