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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    If they wait till 1:00 then I personally will never trust any of the Central Park snowfall measurements that have been made.
  2. EastonSN+
    Can't wait to hear what the Central Park total is
  3. EastonSN+
    Dual Pol shows to sleet line right up to Manhattan almost.
  4. EastonSN+
    One thing I would say is watch the big cutter later this week as the block starts to flex there may be a surprise.
  5. EastonSN+
    Maybe will change to snow with heavier precip?
  6. EastonSN+
    It actually sinks South as it heads East slightly.
  7. EastonSN+
    Did the national weather service always have 3 to 7 in for Central Park for the storm? That is what's there in the point and click.
  8. EastonSN+
    I still have to believe that we failed a lot with blocking patterns in that horrible 30-year period that I keep mentioning.
  9. EastonSN+
    It's funny when you see the next line so far south in the Delmarva yet it's close to the Poconos as well. East is just as important as North in the storm.
  10. EastonSN+
    Dual pol radar showing mix line well.
  11. EastonSN+
    Eh a little different H5. What's hilarious is New Orleans and Destin Florida are doing better this year!
  12. EastonSN+
    Hey Don it looks like GEFS is starting to show the -NAO that's the EPS has. Hopefully this helps us.
  13. EastonSN+
    14 of the 30 seasons were under 19 inches. I do see that only 3 winters were under 10, while we have seen 3 already since 2018. That being said somehow the Delmarva is reaping the benefits since 2018. So it's funny that it's better to be north south east of West of our area. I do believe at some point we will break out of this just don't know when.
  14. EastonSN+
    Yeah that's actually an improvement. I think it was snow goose who mentioned that this resembled one of those storms in the early 2000s where the rains no line was literally right through Long Island sound.
  15. EastonSN+
    That dude told people to buckle up again, that's terrible.
  16. EastonSN+
    This has to be what happened between 1970 and 1999. The old fashioned cold and dry warm and wet LOL.
  17. EastonSN+
    The first wave is too far south then the follow-up wave is a cutter. The fact that Blue Wave is on the upcoming blocky period coming up is a good sign however. The concern would be suppression once it sets in like January. Check the below that's an intense block and by that time we lose our South East ridge.. We shall see.
  18. EastonSN+
    I still think Central Park can beat the half inch it had in the last storm of snow and sleet combined.
  19. EastonSN+
    I like the numbers that go off the chart. Again suppression would be the concern.
  20. EastonSN+
    Thanks yeah I meant 1955 through 1969.
  21. EastonSN+
    Some points. March changes every decade it seems. Hardly ever snowed 2000 through 2010. Snowed a lot 2011 to 2020. 2021 till now it does not snow much so we are in this decade pattern therefore not set in stone, I would hedge against a snowy March have to wait till 2030 LOL. 1990 through 1999 had a lot of March events too. See the pattern. On the topic of KUs, I have to re stress that these are uncommon. If you get the Kocin book you will see a large amount of KU events 1955 through 1960, then a dearth of them for our area from 1970 through 1999. Just because we have a strong block does not guarantee a KU event and more often than not will fail just like most of the blocks of the past have outside of the two snowy periods. I don't know if there are statistics going back that far, however I bet the fail rate for strong blocking from 1970 through 1999 is high. Had a lot of suppressed storms then just like we had record snows on the Gulf Coast this year.
  22. EastonSN+
    Not sure where you're located, however I've lived through so many of these in my lifetime that although they do tend to disappoint more often than not, unless you're a fan of sleet, we do get some that actually pan out as forecasted or even better. So while it's good to keep caution and maybe favor the lower end of the forecast one cannot discount completely the upper end of the forecast.
  23. EastonSN+
    The fast pac jet may have staying power unfortunately, and maybe part of the reason we had the same cutter suppressed hugger pattern from 1970 through 1999 for the most part. Perhaps that is the standard background State and 1955 through 1960 and 2000 through 2018 are the anomalies.
  24. EastonSN+
    That's an impressive amplification and phase 8 and overall correction in such a short time.
  25. EastonSN+
    Yeah Tip in the New England forum has been on top of/ focused on the Hadley cell for the past handful of years.
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