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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    There is no doubt we're heading into a period where there will be a trough in the east. The overnight ensemble runs had the trough too far East similar to the last blocking episode in January. Hoping the ensembles revert back to the look the previous few days we shall see.
  2. EastonSN+
    Unfortunately just like 1955 through 1969 ended the KU run. The 2000 through 2018 KU run ended the same. I just hope it's not a 30-year drought like 1970 through 1999. There were five good above average snowfall seasons for Central Park during those 30 years and we've already seen one in 2020-21, so we should expect another four over the next 22 years give or take.
  3. EastonSN+
    Still seeing them level off is a good sign. It was always a question of when they would start to cool. We may be in a level off period for a few years beforehand though.
  4. EastonSN+
    This looks like it's for both storms this week. Central Jersey's turn.
  5. EastonSN+
    The euro for 6z looks good for one to three inches for Central Park. Likely another coating to 3 inched storm. Theme of the season.
  6. EastonSN+
    Looks like the waters around Indonesia and Australia have leveled off. Could be the start of the cooling trend in those Waters which would help with the mjo.
  7. EastonSN+
    Or 1970 through 1999 LOL.
  8. EastonSN+
    If Central Park somehow goes the rest of the winter without accumulating snow, the average snowfall for the time period of 2018/19 through this year would be 14.52857. The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was 21.90667. a 7.378095 difference.
  9. EastonSN+
    Any of the ensembles show more of a north movement than the ops?
  10. EastonSN+
    LOL if we want to have good snowfall seasons moving forward we have to move South. My childhood vacation spot Ocean City Maryland has beaten my hometown with regards to percentage of average since the snowy period ended in 2018 On a side note here we go again with cold and dry. Would be just a repeat of the last blocking episode. On a side note that crazy snow mean of 11.5 for Central Park is going to be close. They already have 4.1 of the 11.5 and will likely to get one to two on the next storm and one to two on the follow-up storm before it changes the rain. If they get to 8.1 then the 11.5 snow mean was not crazy at all. A decent job by the ensembles.
  11. EastonSN+
    I guess it's aligning with the maturing of The blocking.
  12. EastonSN+
    Awesome Central Park is closing in on the 11.5 on the snow mean from a few days ago. Already 4.1 down on the 11.5. Central Park has a legitimate shot.
  13. EastonSN+
    Terrible Euro run. At least the GFS and CMC are much better.
  14. EastonSN+
    The ensemble mean for 360 hours was 11.5. Central Park could Easily get that. One up run of the GFS should never be taken verbatim.
  15. EastonSN+
    I am personally comparing 2019 onwards to the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999. That average was 21.90667. A smidge under half way there.
  16. EastonSN+
    Thanks for quantifying this. It is indeed interesting. I wish the sample size was much greater however negative 4 SD is rare.
  17. EastonSN+
    These are tools that we have at our disposal. As long as we looked at them responsibly they can be somewhat useful. This is why i caveated that the skill level drops beyond week 3, which is why I only posted week 3 before the question was presented. When looking at the modeling and h5 patterns that are presented by meteorologists and other posters on this board one must always understand that it is the future, and we are not close to being 100% accurate with our modeling.
  18. EastonSN+
    100% this has been a very fun winter from a tracking perspective. I posted a couple times before that the extremely high snow mean on the ensembles of 11.5 before the last storm are in reach for Central Park, which is crazy to think about. Have three more opportunities at least to pick up that difference.
  19. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don I responded to Blue Wave with the question of whether the warmer Gulf temperatures and ocean temperatures in general are causing the storms to be more intense and therefore more prone to cutting which would therefore pump the southeast ridge higher to connect with the nao. Seems to happen only when the blocking starts to get established not when it's established.
  20. EastonSN+
  21. EastonSN+
    I wonder if the stronger more intense storms were getting due to the warmer ocean temperatures and gulf temperatures are pumping up the southeast ridge so much that it does link up with the nao. Basically the catalyst. I am happy to hear that it has happened in the past (under -4) so this is not completely new territory. Out of curiosity are blocking episodes of -4 or deeper increasing?
  22. EastonSN+
    Crazy that we didn't have much of an RNA the entire La Nina winter.
  23. EastonSN+
    Crazy to think this blocking episode could be stronger than the last one.
  24. EastonSN+
    Do we have the liquid equivalent for Central Park.
  25. EastonSN+
    Mid March. Please keep in mind the skill level past week three is suspect.
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