EastonSN+

My point was why compare a negative or positive departure calculated from a current 30 year average against a past 30-year average. Ie if it's a negative one departure for this month using the current 30 years baseline, why should we compare that to a PAST 30 year average from say 1970 to 1999?

Yeah but you want to know if it's above or below average right that's the whole star of the conversation. My point was taking an average from the past not taking the current average.

I just think if it's above average now or below average now that's all that matters whether we put in a 30-year average or a 50 or average or a 10 year average. Today, is it warmer or colder than average. I don't think there's a need to compare to the past as the environment is always changing through history and will continue to do so, so one inherently knows it's going to be different for various reasons. I know a colder than average temperature today is not going to be colder than average during the ice age, and likely would be way below average during the formation of the Earth. Can't live in the past man. The past is gone.

Why do we care about whether or not we mask warming? I thought the purpose was just a show if a temperature is warmer or colder than an average temperature given a standard baseline in the current time frame we live in? Perhaps it's easier if the departures from average are given on three baselines of 10 years 30 years and 50 years at one Time to cover multiple generations?

So then why not use a 50-year average as a baseline or 100 year average? I just don't get the point of continuously caveating that it was something different in the past as that is the past it does not affect the present. It's either warmer or colder compared to a certain baseline. If someone has to put in extra work to continue to say "but in the past this would have happened" then it's not efficient. If a 30-year baseline is not correct because someone has to keep caveating over and over again then something needs to change. Either change the baseline to be shorter like 10 years to be more relevant to the current time or expand the baseline so that someone doesn't have to continually say over and over again that it was different in the past. I just don't see the added value of caveating that it was different in the past than a current departure from average.

Just give it time if there's one constant in life it's change.

Why not just post temperature departures against a 10-year average then? Just don't see the benefit of continually pointing out that a departure now is different than a departure then, as it's in the past.

I just don't think it holds any value to caveat that it was colder in the past. For instance if a reader looked and saw that we are below average temperature wise I don't think they would say well I wonder if we would still be below average 200 years ago (exaggeration). The 30-year averages take care of themselves as they adjust as the decades roll on so there's really no need to compare to the past which is just that the past. It's kind of like saying well the Yankees won the world series this year with a great hitting team however this Yankee lineup is nowhere near the 1927 lineup. What's the point in stating it?

Just out of curiosity why do we always feel the need to say it was colder in the past over and over again? This winter felt cold and had great snow retention regardless of what it was in 1980, 1920, or when the woolly mammoths walk the earth. I still believe the warmer ocean temps will lead to some pretty epic Winters to come snowfall wise and will help offset they cold dryness of the 1970s through 1980s.

We may have a shot when the mjo gets to phase 2 however not counting on it LOL.

Yeah I don't know however whether it was or wasn't it was the exact same result of cutter suppression cutter suppression cutter suppression on and on LOL. What's incredible is in that frigid look in 1989 the one big storm we had ended up changing to rain LOL.

Yeah it was colder because the trough was positioned directly over us and deeper and not as wide. This trough was broader. Check out the pack the ridge encompassed part of the West Coast where this year it was further west allowing more of the cold air to spill into the middle of the country.

Over under on NYC March snowfall? 1.5 inches?

I believe Raleigh's official measurement was 2 inches.

When the jet calms down I have a feeling we're going to get absolutely destroyed when one of these strong blocking episodes comes through. Seeing what's happening to the South shows that we are absolutely cold enough for a blockbuster winter, we just need that benchmark track back like you mentioned and when it happens boom the higher moisture in the atmosphere and obviously from the higher water temps we can see some historic storms. I think the warmer Gulf Waters may have led to the record snowfalls in New Orleans and Destin Florida..