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Rd9108

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Everything posted by Rd9108

  1. Rd9108
    NAM keeps us close to stay invested but still south. The vort needs to be stronger to fight the confluence. Right now once the vort gets to PA it gets shredded. Apparently the vort will be sampled this evening/tonight officially.
  2. Rd9108
    Just being overdramatic tbh. We've seen enough wild swings with less than 48 to go before.
  3. Rd9108
    Yikes euro is barely an inch and it's drier. This one might be over. Only the NAM gives us the goods. Those damn midatlantic weenies win again!
  4. Rd9108
    Lmao of course the euro goes south. Can't make it up. It's been very steady on being further south. Oh well still time and we still have snow tomorrow.
  5. Rd9108
    Cmc gives my area a foot as well. Let's just shake on it now and everybody is happy.
  6. Rd9108
    Cmc isn't as amped. I kind of like where we sit. Not necessarily for the bullseye but for atleast a warning event. Something we haven't had in awhile. Time for bed. Won't be up for the euro unless we get a call in the middle of the night.
  7. Rd9108
    Lmao the gfs sends the mix line right into the area. Let's see what the euro does.
  8. Rd9108
    The fact that I'll be at work Monday makes me believe it will overperform and I'll be dealing with accidents and shoveling out hydrants all day.
  9. Rd9108
    Somehow the euro has been pretty rock steady. Can't rule out a move north but looks like PA border is where the heaviest will set up.
  10. Rd9108
    Euro hasn't budged which is quite amazing. Has us with around 6 which is solid but amazing how steady it's been for the most part. On to the 0z!
  11. Rd9108
    Just saw that. Funny how we go from worrying about suppression to too warm. I figured this would come back north so not surprised. It's only one run and few days away.
  12. Rd9108
    HRRR shows around 3 and then who knows with lake effect. Regardless it looks like we will start building a snow pack.
  13. Rd9108
    Agreed it's a fine line. The closer the heaviest precip the closer the mix line. Just seems like with this being so southern jet stream dominated that WAA may be under modeled, and the storm winds up slightly north of the models.
  14. Rd9108
    First winter weather advisory of the year! Maybe we can get a warning on Monday. Latest euro looks pretty solid with room to improve if the precip busts low or the max is further north than modeled.
  15. Rd9108
    Euro is painfully close but misses to the south. Still time for it to come north but right now our area minus a few posters are on the fringe. Let's see what today shows.
  16. Rd9108
    Just saw that before I'm headed to bed. Look at the kuchera with ratios. This would shut down the city. Gfs is trending slowly toward the other models buts it's still south of most guidance.
  17. Rd9108
    HRRR is juiced for Friday
  18. Rd9108
    Latest trends look good. Not to mention a possible 1-3 Friday. We are now fully in Winter mode. I expect our thread will start to get active in the coming days.
  19. Rd9108
    Happy New Year Still early but lastest blend
  20. Rd9108
    0z gfs looks good. Every option is still on the table.
  21. Rd9108
    Of course not but we seen things trend north lasts second more so than south. Suppression does happen but id say it's rarer than the warm nose pushing in and screwing us.
  22. Rd9108
    Whereas that data come from?
  23. Rd9108
    This looks right to me
  24. Rd9108
    Still a few days out but the 1/5 threat is looking better. Of course we still might have a rug pull happen.
  25. Rd9108
    About as good of a mean we can see it this lead time. Gonna be some stress filled model watching I'm betting
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