Rd9108

This thread needs bumped. **** this winter. No signs of any possible pattern to even give us a big storm.

This is what we need. Not a super complex set up but we got 10 inches from this two years ago.

Euro is atleast interesting with multiple wave scenario. Maybe we can push the boundary far enough south and get in the action.

The ensembles show hope but the operationals show despair and cutter after cutter. The way the winter is going I'm gonna have to side with the cutter scenerio. Couple that with the a raging AO and this feburary already looks toast for any sustained winter weather. Maybe we get lucky and time something but even then I don't think it would hang around long. At this point I'd rather the end of February just torch and winter end. We can reset next year and hopefully have a snowy December. I can't remember the last time we had a prolonged winter in December.

The GEFS show some signs of hope for the long range.

I know we all want that big daddy storm but I'd honestly be content with a 3-6 type storm at this point.

From my untrained eye the only way we will get an advisory level snow from this next system is a potent northern stream. An amped up runner seems out of the question at this time. Need to some big changes if that's gonna happen.

Got some things to do but here's the GEFS for the next storm before I head out.

We need the NS to phase in sooner force this further north. We walk a tight line though because we don't want this to cut. As it stands now the trend is not our friend.

Still a long ways out. Although odds are never in our favor.

Looks like the Euro is moving further east. The thing is that at this lead time and this much energy floating around a day can make a difference. It's good to see the cutters gone but our friends out east may just get richer once again.

Yeah and now it's gone. The signal is still there but most models show a coastal scraper. One thing is there is a lot of vorts during the time period so the models maybe having a hard time with the solution. I'd say inland areas have a better chance with this just because of the seasonal trend. However we know how this ends, I'm curious to see the ensembles though.

NAM has possible wrap around snow this weekend. Won't be a lot but I wouldnt be surprised if we get an inch from it. Something to watch and maybe we can eek out 2 inches and call it a win.

Well even central PA is looking worse and worse. That primary just has no reason to die and transfer fast without a cold high blocking its path. Of course as DJ mentioned we have a Miller A in the beginning of February but again no sign of cold air we are relying on the storm dynamics at that point.

Well gfs didnt change much but the primary didn't get as far north atleast, but it was still too late. If this thing gets to our latitude before transfer it will not snow.

Agreed and the UK, GEFS, EURO, and GFS all agree. We need some major changes with the primary or else its gonna be the same thing as last time. I always laugh when people cry about getting screwed on snow. They have no idea what it means getting screwed.

The consensus at this range is pretty unfortunate. Every model shows our area as the screw area.

GEFS now suck balls for our area. Not a single good hit. This is looking like a miss unless we can get some positive trends.

Most local Mets always err on the side of caution. As the date approaches they adjust the forecast. Don't get discouraged by Smiley forecasting an inch. We are still a few days away. Bernie Rayno always mentions the windshield wiper effect. Models move the solutions and then correct back and then sometimes overcorrect. What we see today might not necessarily be the final solution.

Good sign this far out. One huge thing we have going for us is peak climo. We don't need an impressive airness to snow.

Only one of my favorite storms. Jan 94, the rates in that storm were apparently pretty insane. I'll take a 5 hour thump of 1-3 inch per hour over a long duration storm with maybe an inch per hour rates.

Majority of the euro ensembles look great. Only 28 runs to go.

Good to have some.guidance show some possibility, but I don't like that the air mass is so marginal. That primary has to die somewhat fast or its gonna be more wet than white.

Gfs ensembles looked better at 12z. Long way away though.

12z looks awful for us. I have zero expectations for this threat. The evolution just looks too much like a miss for us. Sums up our area quite well.