The problem is with pattern changes you are gonna have the models having a hard time with solutions. Let's get the blocking first and go from there. You are about spot on date wise.
Pretty crazy we had the 2nd snowiest December. Looks like we have a strong block developing for the beginning of January. Tracking chances will start to show up again soon.
So all we need is a big daddy and my winter season will be complete. So far this is exactly what I like. Front loaded seasons are better than backloaded. I believe we are in a good place as far as storm tracks.
Thanks to our lovely city workers the streets around my parents house were a disaster. I may or may not have totaled my car because of it. Oh well I'm not hurt atleast.
HRRR looks like it has us changing over around 2 or 3 AM. I'll be curious to see how well that holds. The mix line is starting to approach PA just past Canton it looks like.
Not out of the possibility at all. All depends on the changeover. Usually we are on the losing side but maybe we get lucky. Gonna be interesting to see how fast that front moves through.
Euro has us at like 5-7ish fwiw. Granted that is using a 10-1 ratio which most likely will not occur at least at first. Regardless when was our last White Christmas. Seems like every year I'm in shorts that day.