If the ensembles were super amped and showed tons of hits I'd be concerned that this was gonna be a Youngstown special. I think we are in a great spot for possible warning level snow. We need everything to line up perfectly for 12+ and we know this.
What's really interesting is the GEFS continues to be a lot less amped than the GFS. However the GFS has support from the ICON and GGEM. So this is pretty wild the differences here.
Great chart. Shows how much we do not know. All I know is we need an earlier phase and closed off low. There could be wild swings depending on the speed of the vorts, the high, and how close they are to one another.
This looks very 94ish just from low placement and upper levels. How often does that track even happen though. Long way to go and I'm sure we are gonna see some wild run to run swings.
Something big is gonna pop now whether we get in on the good stuff or not is a whole different story. Atleast we are gonna have sustained cold and some positive teleconnections for a change.
NWS does bust so maybe this busts high. The problem is its fast moving and little precip. If we get 3 I'd be happy. Although I have to drive tonight and never drove in the snow before.
Looks like nws is calling for 1-2. Atleast it will fall mostly during daylight hours. The good news as Wilson mentioned is the pattern seems to be changing to something more favorable.