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Rd9108

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Everything posted by Rd9108

  1. Rd9108
    I guess this will come down to nowcasting and seeing where that mix line is throughout the day. I took off tonight, no desire to drive in the ice and snow.
  2. Rd9108
    So are the models warmer than the observations?
  3. Rd9108
    Yeah it definitely feels colder. To be honest the road temperature is what to really focus on atleast until the changeover.
  4. Rd9108
    gfs isn't backing down from extreme amounts of fzr. Close to .9 this run. That front is gonna be the difference between shutting down the city for the night and basically a non event. Time for sleep, I'll be curious to see the trends at 6z but usually once we start to see bad trends this close it never reverts.
  5. Rd9108
    It's pretty incredible to see. Seems like AGH is always the battle zone.
  6. Rd9108
    Unless I'm missing something on the soundings there looks like there is zero evidence of any changeover until late evening at the earliest.
  7. Rd9108
    Yeah as of now its looking like we get a lot of rain and very little ice/snow.
  8. Rd9108
    Hmmm as of now the trends are making me think im gonna stay at work tomorrow night to save a sick day. If I wake up tomorrow and things look different than I'll change my mind. I have until afternoon to decide.
  9. Rd9108
    I mean what did Youngstown get a foot of snow??? It's not like we missed 20 by 50 miles or anything.
  10. Rd9108
    6z data could look totally different. I'm guessing KPitt is being very cautious in jumping in either direction.
  11. Rd9108
    NAM is still pretty icy but the short range trend is warmer and the front to be hung up. Gotta see what the front looks like tomorrow morning.
  12. Rd9108
    Yep the front just gets hung up right before the city now fwiw. Nightmare to forecast.
  13. Rd9108
    yep seems as now the mesos are showing the front getting hung up right around western agh County and just stuck there. NAM and HRRR are now showing this. Let's see what the 3k shows.
  14. Rd9108
    doesn't seem like it changed anything as far as accumulations though
  15. Rd9108
    Euro still has some really bad freezing rain and then 3 or 4 on the backside
  16. Rd9108
    agreed I'm thinking some freezing rain, sleet and then like 2-4 backend. Anything more would be a bonus
  17. Rd9108
    keep pushing that line south yikes
  18. Rd9108
    NAM moved a decent bit southeast and colder fwiw. 0z could have huge implications on this storm. One thing is for certain the 18z data is showing more white/ice than wet.
  19. Rd9108
    ouch... So say we do get ice and then 6inches of snow is anybody gonna be upset at such a "bust"
  20. Rd9108
    NAM actually is looking more like the HRRR now. Maybe the RAP was actually on to something.
  21. Rd9108
    NAM looks like it's adjusting to 18z data too.
  22. Rd9108
    I mean granted a lot is probably sleet look at the difference
  23. Rd9108
    yeah same here the HRRR at 18z looks colder and icier. If by tomorrow it looks like we will torch and avoid the ice then I'll stay at work.
  24. Rd9108
    Guess who is probably taking off tomorrow night.... Yeah I really don't want to deal with accidents all over the city again. Last time we got snow and ice I fell on back and we had to shovel, salt, and break the ice off the street to get cars out of the James Street parking garage. HRRR looks way colder fwiw
  25. Rd9108
    I was thinking that myself. They must think that the front isn't gonna push through too fast.
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