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Rd9108

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Everything posted by Rd9108

  1. Rd9108
    Wouldn't shock me to see it trend better. The MJO looks like it's not going into phases 4-5-6 like it was going to. Now it's going to be in a weak 3 phase which means that the strong negative EPO will drive the pattern. Just look up into Canada and see how much cold air is available.
  2. Rd9108
    EPO looks to be going negative I wouldn't be surprised if this trends colder as we get closer to the event. The ensembles are all starting to pull back on the big warm up.
  3. Rd9108
    Yep basically that big warm up early spring that was progged is turning into a brief warm up before a new pattern reloads.
  4. Rd9108
    this looks familiar g
  5. Rd9108
    Yep the ensembles are starting to see it as well. Not to mention Canada is very cold and that cold isn't just gonna disappear. I wouldn't mind one more period of tracking before we flip.
  6. Rd9108
    Well seems that a SSWE maybe taking place here soon which would lead to a return of winter in March. We may start tracking again in a few weeks but until then we may warm up for a little bit.
  7. Rd9108
    I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this doesn't bode well for us in the coming weeks.
  8. Rd9108
    Seems like the consensus is that any sustained cold and winter pattern is breaking down. Doesn't mean we can't get a temporary breakdown for a few days and get a decent storm.Also the models are all over the place for long range anyway so it's hard to even trust them.
  9. Rd9108
    sounds like I'm going golfing
  10. Rd9108
    social media sent me. They are saying we are getting a foot of snow this weekend
  11. Rd9108
    The gfs is close enough to keep us interested. I still think it slides underneath and gives places like Philly some sneaky snow but it's something to keep an eye on.
  12. Rd9108
    where are you seeing this??? looks like the models keep flip flopping
  13. Rd9108
    Mean for the Euro ensembles. The signal for a storm is there for the 18th. Long way to go and it could look like a cutter to the Dakotas by the same time next week.
  14. Rd9108
    That total map was put out around mid event and It snowed another 2 or 3 inches into the afternoon. It wasn't a bust but I guess you could call it a disappointment since warm and dry air may have cost us another 2 or 4 inches.
  15. Rd9108
    Oh I understand what he is saying but a majority of the county after it was all said and done got 7 or 8 inches. That's a warning event every time. I get the frustration since the models started throwing big numbers out but dry air and mixing knocked the totals down a few inches. It's over and let's move onto the next threat.
  16. Rd9108
    Our criteria is 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 in 24 hrs if I'm not mistaken. Can somebody explain how it didn't reach that???
  17. Rd9108
    I mean we can argue about this all day but after the storm was all said and done a general 6-9 fell across the county. They adjusted their forecast last minute to account for dry air.
  18. Rd9108
    Yeah I mean that's the problem with our area such little changes make huge shifts to the forecast. I think the bigger problem is how slow they are to adjust the totals. Often times we see the model runs first and we know before the public that we aren't gonna get 8-12.
  19. Rd9108
    Yeah that would have been hard to track nowadays seeing 3ft so close. Imagine 3 almost 2 ft storms within almost a year apart dec 1992, March 93, jan94. Insane
  20. Rd9108
    looks like Pittsburgh was fringed
  21. Rd9108
    Ehh last year was an A. This year is still in C+ territory unless we get some more snows. December was winterless which brings it down. I'd rather have a snowy December/January/ February than a late winter.
  22. Rd9108
    Yep and usually the big ones are modeled atleast a week out. We track
  23. Rd9108
    Would totally be alright with this
  24. Rd9108
    Euro has a signal for a big dog it just doesn't bomb out big time until it hits the coast.
  25. Rd9108
    No not at all. I'd say it's been a solid C+ maybe B- so far.
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