Rd9108
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Everything posted by Rd9108
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Gfs has more of a look that I think will happen. It's more of a strong front that brings in heavy precip. I believe we had something similar two years ago in December. It would be enough for white Chirstmas. -
Idk if I trust the Euro at 10 days away. Not to mention it's ensembles don't look like it at all. I agree it's tough getting excited about this period seeing as how it seems to keep getting pushed back. However I wouldn't take 10 day OP runs and run away. I guarantee it will look different at 0z.
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The next storm is dead. We now turn our focus on what transpires after the storm cuts and brings in the arctic air.
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Gfs a tick better at 0z. Need this to trend some more or else it's gonna be some cold cold rain.
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Trends aren't great. It's back to a cutter with a very late transfer. Still time but we need to see some positive trends asap.
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Euro crushes us with around a foot. Don't get too excited yet. We know how these go. I fully expect this to shift back east unless block is weaker.
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Idk 0z Euro might be best case scenario for us. We maybe need to bite the bullet and accept that east of us will get 20 for us to get 10. Regardless looks like the pattern is finally changing.
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Miller Bs don't really excite me. With rhat being said we may atleast see some accumulating snow from the northern energy like the 12z shows. I just have a feeling that this will be further east with the bigger snows. Still a lot of time and big changes will happen.
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0z gfs. Still a long way out
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Lol it's an 18z run384 hrs out this will change for better or worse.
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We shall see if something like this comes to fruition but EPS is showing a -EPO, -NAO/AO and the PNA not as positive. Now of course we have seen this how the pattern is slow to change but it seems like guidance is starting to like the idea of it actually happening.
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Something maybe to pay attention to if this happens to trend south. Never know this far out
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Seems as though this is literally an exact repeat of last year. Still a chance that mid December changes if the pacific improves. Who knows maybe a Christmas miracle.
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Yep until the Pacific starts to improve it won't matter how much blocking the NAO and AO gives us.
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Honestly this is looking like more and more of a bust. The pacific is just not cooperating and flooding the area with warm air. Any cold air that comes in isn't even arctic in nature. Still time so who knows.
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Well the surface depiction is obviously a miss but the 18z gfs is showing two snow storms now. So it looks like the pattern is finally developing.
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See I'm the opposite. If it's not gonna snow might as well torch. I can atleast golf when it's in the 50s. Taking my dogs to the park is more enjoyable. If it's 30s and either rain or dry I just don't see the point.
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H5 actually improved, gotta wait and see if it holds and if the surface responds.
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I don't like that we keep pushing back the good pattern every run. Eventually we need to get to the point where we can say it looks good <7 days away.
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And now it's 500 miles west of the 18z. Wow these models are rough. I'm gonna say give it a few days and see what happens. Hopefully we see some sustained cold the week of Christmas.
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New run new outcome.
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Lmao we never learn our lesson. Not saying it will change for the better but we are almost a week out. We've seen major shifts 2 or so days out. Honestly if we sacrifice the 9th for better wintry weather around Christmas then I'd say let it happen. Of course the trends are not good but still have to monitor it.
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Granted it's a sloppy mess but it's light years different from 18z
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Ehh give me the cold and pattern first and then we can worry about suppression and storm tracks. We've all seem how these things change days out.
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Fall 2022 Pittsburgh/Western PA Discussion
Rd9108 replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I am member on usawx forum and they post them on there. Once something pops up worth tracking i can post them.
