Rd9108

Sheesh it's snowing good, should be a fun commute.

I was just making a joke but most likely it would be a cold and miserable month. Snow would be possible but snow in April is gone in an hour.

Writing was on the wall whenever we kept seeing the frontogenesis band get weaker and further north on the mesoscale models. I warned people who texted me that this was most likely gonna bust. Don't worry we will get blocking in April.

Wheeew I also spent too much time on this. At this point it might not even the temps that get us, it might be the lack of precip before the temps surge. Tough winter.

MAG with some interesting thoughts. Wish we had some more Mets around here. You go to the northeast threads and there is 4+. Regardless always good to get some thoughts from an expert. Most guidance has been supportive of at least a couple inches generally from the metro north, which I’d feel okay about. The big question is the south of the metro and how much warm advection precip can actually manage its way up into the rest of SW PA early, like especially prior to and near 12z. It’ll snow anywhere if there’s a more expansive precip shield that gets into PA early enough. Even without much of that, the main part of the system with the direct southerly flow straight from the Gulf of Mexico could still yield a start as snow with pretty heavy rates even in further SW PA but obviously time would really be limited there before the column temps get routed and then the dry slot arrives.

Sheesh might be a non event here when it's all said and done. I guess just hope for a bust.

Must be a bunch of backside

I hate being that guy but the 0z HRRR has like no precip hitting agh County until it changes to rain.....

Credit to MAG I dunno if I’d call it straight-forward haha, at least the part that ultimately matters (snow on the ground). GFS is getting good snow to the LSV and even SW PA because it focuses the preceding warm advection snowfall there instead of a thinner stripe across northern PA as the higher res short range models and the Euro have been showing. I tend to think there will be better coverage with a system like this to deliver something closer to a Euro type solution but I’m not currently buying the full GFS type scenario that has some of the best totals actually in southern PA and some of the Sus Valley. I mentioned in my post in the last page that will have to see how radar trends go tonight and how well the meso guidance is modeling it. The WAA stuff is the key part of seeing any notable accums (advisory type amounts) in southern PA.

MAG had a good discussion in the central thread. Look towards western Kentucky and the Ohio River to see what happens there to maybe get an idea if the gfs has a clue or not.

So in simple terms, this threat is dead.

Interesting on the HRRR that initial finger isn't as stout but there is a sign of some extremely heavy snow right after that.

It's the lack of KPitt. Somebody has to make up for his negativity.

What's the best guidance for seeing this?

Again 18z 3k says zero chance of that happening. I know its not modelogy but how can you see this and think we are getting anything more than an inch or so.

Trust me they're the experts and they forget more about weather than I'll ever know but every short range guidance is trending worse. I can't see how they could up the totals unless you mean they expect some back end too. I'd be absolutely shocked if we got more than an inch tomorrow.

They must have tried some Fentanyl that is all over the city.

Yeah this one is cooked. I don't see how we even see an inch out of this on the front end.

Looks like 3k NAM is slightly better than the 6z. Maybe we can get a surprise.

I was looking for the one I made so I'm stealing this one

Well hopefully this can trend better but man just north of the city gets hit hard on the NAM Looks right to me lol

Idk the Euro hinted at this too yesterday. It may not last long but we could get a good period coming up here.

Yep and most of the storms are east of us for a change. Hopefully other guidance catches on because I'm sick of the mud!! Just had to give my one dog a bath because of the mud.

Shhh I'm using reverse psychology