CNY-LES FREAK

Yeah, I was gonna mention that as I'm about 18 miles to ur NNE and Wolfie's about 28 miles to my North perhaps a bit farther. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The heaviest action is directly between Wolfie and I, lol, and its headed ur way bro so you'll see the most from this bit o lift that zipping through, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Yeah just looked outside and its coming down at a decent clip but its wet and pasty, lol, accumulating to everything, 33F!

Super windy where I am I can tell ya that, with some light snow from the CF thats moving through but it heads back North, lol, so thats why the P&C went up to 2" as perhaps they were not to confident to forecast till the band formed, lol!

I pay absolutely no mind to precip maps cause they are wrong every single time and please do a study if ya want cause I did one, and I almost laughed.

KBUF doesn't sound so bad! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1259 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 .SYNOPSIS... The passage of a weak cold front will initiate some lake effect snow showers east of both lakes tonight...otherwise an increasing amount of attention will turn towards a plowable snowfall that will be experienced across the bulk of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will be followed by the coldest airmass so far this season to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front over southern Ontario late this afternoon will push across our forecast area this evening. While a vigorous shortwave associated with this boundary will help to generate scattered snow showers for some areas this evening...a lack of deep moisture will limit the coverage to areas closer to the lakes. This will especially be the case along the Chautauqua ridge and east of Lake Ontario where a short lived lake response will support nuisance accumulations of an inch or two...with up to three inches possible on the Tug. By daybreak Wednesday...warm advection will already be under way. This will shut down the response of Lake Erie by sunrise...while the residual lake snow showers near the Tug Hill will push north across Jefferson county while weakening to just flurries. Otherwise...a large surface high moving from the Upper Ohio Valley across the Mid Atlantic states will support fair dry weather while also encouraging at least partial clearing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Water vapor imagery displays a cut-off low pressure along the AZ/Mexico border and this feature will advance northeastward... eventually joining with a northern branch shortwave to form a deep positively tilted trough that will pass across our region to start this forecast period. The 12Z suite of models remain in good agreement at this stage, with both the passage of the upper level trough as well as the track of the surface low... with this surface low tracking from western TN Wednesday night to central PA Thursday morning and then off the northern New England coastline Thursday afternoon. To start Wednesday evening...our region will be dry, with point soundings displaying a dry wedge between 925-850 hPa. A southerly flow ahead of this upper level trough will be transporting moisture northward, with isentropic lift generating light snow across our region Wednesday evening as the lower levels saturate. Additionally a strong 220 knot 300 hPa jet will be generally W-E across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Canada this period, with the favorable right entrance region across our area Wednesday night and into Thursday. This jet will further increase the synoptic lift for precipitation. As the surface low tracks northeastward Wednesday night a baroclinic boundary will tighten over our region, with a warmer wedge of air across the Southern Tier, and towards the Finger Lakes. Along and to the south of this baroclinic boundary a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain will be possible...that could even change to plain rain late Wednesday night near the state line. Across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA snow will be the dominate p-type...with just a small chance of sleet/freezing rain late Wednesday night across WNY. As the surface low tracks to our east Thursday a much colder airmass will settle across our region, with precipitation becoming all snow by early Thursday afternoon. Moderate snow will be likely just to the northwest of the surface low...with this occurring late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning over parts of our region. Additionally 850 hPa frontogentic forcing will be increasing across WNY...leading to enhanced snowfall rates. Given the positive tilt to the upper level trough, speed of the surface low and lack of deep moisture in the dendritic snow growth zone, overall snow totals will generally be held to within the high advisory range. We will continue to mention this snow threat in the HWO. Thursday night a much colder airmass will settle across our region, with 850 hPa temperatures falling into the negative teens...to lower negative 20s Celsius across Lake Ontario and points eastward. This will generate a much higher SWE, with fluffy lake effect snow falling to the south and southeast of the Lakes. This activity will likely peak Friday afternoon...when inversion heights are at their peak and a very cold airmass creates steep instability over the still wide open lakes. Later Friday afternoon, a much drier airmass coinciding with the 850 hPa ridge axis will end much of the lake snows east of Lake Erie Friday evening. As winds become light over the region Friday night what lake snows are left south and southeast of Lake Ontario will contract back towards the Lake, with a tea kettle band of snow then drifting out over Lake Ontario as synoptic flow becomes light from the south. T I still don't know about the pos tilt cause I haven't looked yet but I will very shortly!

I haven't even looked at the models regarding this upcoming event yet, lol, cause with all the previous disappointments of the season, I find it hard to follow every run just to see the same prognosis day after day so now I wait till we're 1-2 days out and if its still a threat then I become a little more invested and I'm really not yet invested in this event but I am interested about the LE potential afterwards and it won't be a wickedly dry airmass like the last was so thats gonna help and with the temps forecasted, we can see some nice surprises anywhere in CNY. Its one of those airmass's that any or every cloud that passes overhead will contain snow, lol! If we can manage to see 4-6" before the LE, I'll be

I gotta to admit though, the salt they spew on the roads all across CNY but specifically the city and the burbs, if ya wanna call them burbs, is absolutely atrocious, like you'd think we've received 400" thus far. I've actually thought I hit road bumps in some neighborhoods that were salt piles, RLMAO, I mean it's f'in nuts and if no one understands what I'm talking about just head to the Salt City, Syracuse's nickname, lol!!

Yeah OK, lol, we 'll see rain with these CR's, nah doubtful!

I feel like I'm living on the Jersey Coast again as I'm loving all these events with temps in the low 30's cause flake size in both events were efficient and so is whatever we're seeing tonight. NwS ultimately says we go to rain, and I wont dispute that, but it may happen after most precip and lift exits stage right so we'll end up with some BR, lol, with an inversion!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I think we may have an overachiever on our hands as theres no sign of a mix anywhere as DP are in the mid 20's everywhere and there not rising much so.... its S+ right now where I am with a temp of 29F. NWS forecasted 2-3 slushy inches for the lower elevations and I think they may be wrong! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Snow has begun and its ramping up quickly with decent dendrites as well! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Tornado warnings have been going off all day long!

00Z it'll be all taint, lol! Nah, I think we're in a great spot for this one although it is an anomalous track so we'll see. These types of events you either get jacked or raped, lol!

Nam is snow for both events but we knew this and it looks like a bomb out for the second event right over NYC LI so Nam is doing its usual, lol!

If the H850LP gets anywhere near Central PA North, CNY is toast as far as a mix or changeover is concerned but the one thing we have going is the warmer temps get somewhat shunted Eastward but if its stronger, look out. I dont trust any system this yr TBH because the warmth wins over, most of the time at least here in CNY but I hope I'm wrong. If when you wake up and its already a mix we're toast, lol!

IDK but on the 12Z GFS CNY gets a shitload of FZRN for hrs and hrs with surface temps in the mid 20's and H850's above +2C so we can see some serious icing after an initial 1-2" of wet snow, then once the coastal takes over than it all collapses and we go over to a thumpimg Snow but IMO tomorrows event is hurting us big time, but thats just me! I'm still loving the LE after this goes by and it doesn't move too fast either!

Just as Dave stated, if you are anywhere ENE of KROC, odds are ur gonna get crushed, not so much from the event itself but from the LE as it pulls away and heads for the GOM. We are looking good for a solid 1' for the area as a whole so good luck to all except TUG as usual cause hes convinced this is headed towards Detroit or Lake Huron, Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

l'm loving the LE after she passes for sure!

We'll get more after the system passes for sure with ample moisture!

With quite a bit of taint too, lol!

A glorified overrunning event is what I think were looking at!

Another words, they have no clue where the baroclinic zones gonna be! Good forecast IMO