CNY-LES FREAK

Happy Thanksgiving to all as well!

I just dont see all this blocking preventing this from heading straight into the Upper Great Lakes, at least on the guidance I looked at. I haven't looked at the NAO so I dont know what phase it's in but I'd bet it's in a transition mode either from Neg-->Pos or the other way around. Either way, my early call on this is that the models will catch on and start to trend North with Primary and Secondary which, in this case, can form on the Lee side of the Apps and it heads NNE from there. The current HP set-up over CA isn't conducive for a large EC snow event but I can be very wrong. Another thing I noticed the cold air, as it makes it's way across across the US erodes and doesn't get any colder than -10C at H850. Moisture is plentiful both from the Atlantic and the Gulf opens as well so there's no issue there but to me there are many other Cons vs Pros for us but this is expected for our area. I can actually see the Primary getting up into the UP and the secondary popping somewhere just South and East of the Catskills and heads NE which would affect the same areas that just got affected except KROC which will see perhaps a 1/10 of what they saw. The Cuse is in the same boat. I dont like the set up at all. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Bro, you thought it was bad up on the Tug last yr where you were, lol, wait till this yr when every West Flow event pounds your old location, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Matt, its Wednesday brutha and things are gonna change 4 more times before a consensus starts to begin and guidance starts to converge and I'd say sometime on Saturday we'll see this occur Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wait till the day of the event and check the latest run of the HRRR and go with it, lol, cause it beat the crap out of every other guidance out there and I said it was out to lunch. The one who jinxed us was, Of course, Dave, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Most are a good hit for our area but still 5 days out and we all saw what just happened with this last debacle. I love tracking like the last one but got skunked and I will not have my eyes pinned to every model run cause that only complicates matters worse but when Saturday rolls around, and were still in the cone of uncertainty then I'd go with the under again. our area is simply not conducive for synoptic events except when they occasionally want to, and they do, it I dont think this is one of these times. I feel the result will be as bad if not worse than the last as far as frozen precip but these opinions are mine so we'll see. Something has to go wrong, it's what happens with almost every synoptic event around here then we all wait for LES cause we all know we're getting something but not with synoptic events. I've lived through too many disappointments and I just lived through another one so I won't track back to back duds, not me! I will lurk till Sunday Morning, Peace! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It did not, its last run before the start of the event, it had most moisture tumour South and East sonI dont kkow what ur looking at bro! Sont even try to discredit the beat guidance out there for the last 15yrs still dominates all other guidance and the United states should be ashamed! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The German ICON is in its own world, as usual and most guidance are in their own respective worlds so follow the most superior guidance our there, The Euro until other models follow suit cause they will start to unless its solution is wrong and the GFS sees a totally different scenario so lets watch. I won't even look at the ICON, CANADIAN and a Especially the RGEM, horrific tools to predict our weather. It's however, better than most guidance with cold dense low lvl arctic air intrusions but that's about it! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What are ppl looking at on this board? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The good ole GFS, lol, but its not that bad of a tool which is what all of this guidance is, are tools with the Euro being the Dewalt brand while all the rest are Kobalt, Milwaukee and Bosch are mediocre except black and decker which is akin to the horrific Canadian guidance, the absolute worse out CD there! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

That's makes no sense whatsoever bro. You mean there is blocking that's why its keeps ticking SE or am I missing something, lol? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I dont think I ever said it was factual about Cold Novembers do anything to the following months regarding temps but I mentioned every time we see a cold and I guess somewhat snowy November then our Decembers are usually warmer than normal and snowfall has been falling short of the monthly average, that's what I said about Novembers. Show me 3 yrs in a row that both Nov-Dec have been both BN in Temps and BN in precip or shall we just say snow. The past 3 have been the exact opposite, Cold Novembers followed by horrific Decembers but I may be wrong. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If ppl can't clearly see that this bowling ball, whichbis an anomaly as it is, as usually these cut offs occur late Spring during again, change of seasons when theres quite a bit of mixing between both streams so we'll see what happens. I'm in the cutting West camp and after if, and when it transfers to the Coast, I can see it being to far North to really get any appreciable snow or even precip back this far West. The Lake effect is a straight guess from this far out so....... I absolutely despise cold and somewhat snowy November's and this is why!!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Models are all over the place, likely due to the change of seasons which happens every yr practically but these warm Decembers are starting to bore me yr after yr! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Let's try and get one it is events that everyone's posting to be within 3 days then maybe we can get some excitement going on this board otherwise we're in for a very very dull holiday season when it comes to wintry weather likely due to the horrifically below average November we just experienced and I really don't know what snowstorm everyone's talking about because I got 5" total and that's not a storm that's a nuisance! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I have a mix forecasted at 2AM on my P&C and I'll wake up to snow tomorrow guaranteed, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Agreed, I will forever choose the under on snow amounts until I see a definitive situation, lol, because its doing everything in its power not to snow! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Cold Novembers DO NOT correlate well with the following 3 months, as theres a definitive warm correlation versus a cold one but October is a different story. As well as a warm November, that's why I love warm ones but oh well, another wasted month on cold and snow that will all be gone by the time the true holiday season hits, RLMAO so next yr when you're rooting for ur BY to get Jack-potted for cold and snow in November, maybe you'll think twice and try and will it the other way, meaning the WEST COAST lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This should definitely be expected!! I've been talking about and harping on this exact scenario since I got on the board this year and here we effen go all over again with a AN Dec which should run right into the heart of our beloved season, oh well we were bound to get a crapper sooner or later, perhaps its this yr! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Snow in November sucks, it's easy as that except If it's just past Thanksgivings then things can get cranking. These early storms, Well what I experienced wasn't even a storm, suck as their like Spring snow Storms, others got hit nice by it though, others got stugots(if ur Italian you'll get that one), I absolutely hate Snow in November, simple as that! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I lived in Jersey City for 25 yrs and it was expected, mixing and what not but not up here. When it happens, it hurts even more but bbn I've been here for 15yrs so ur attitude should start to change at about 10yrs or so, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Ended up close to 5" total, lol, what a colossal bust but this was a toughie to bbn forecast for sure and the model that I'll never look at again is the RGEM, horrific for days, it better stick to me so that's for sure!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

So true!

Its gonna rock from 06Z to 12Z so we'll see!

We're still in this Max as its blossoming in WNY and pivoting Eastward so we should see a solid deformation zone later tonight or early in the AM but I doubt its over for us!