CNY-LES FREAK

Im glad you remember cause I knew you would!

V day storm of 2013 thumped for a good 8-12hrs and we got well over 8" then we mixed then back to snow with lots of enhancement and ended up ear 14" totals, but I guess we'll see! I already mentioned the horrific H700mb lp as its mostly Northern stream energy, lol!

I guess that can't change between now and then, WTF?

What a horrible disc, lol! They seriously hate snow!

The area I highlighted should wet-bulb down to freezing or just above as the area just to my West is starting to light up with blues and greens, lol!

Now this may have some serious implications regarding this weekend event for sure so well see! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We all know tomorrow's system is now a PA border slider when most guidance had it above Lake Ontario and this was 24hrs ago and that's what happens when a system, especially a weak ass one hits a brick wall, it has no choice but to exit stage right, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

bullish for you, lol, but this is probably our best chance for at least 3-6" but we'll see!

I didn't even think BTV was still running their in house meso model, wow!

Sure is but how believable is it is the ?, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Icon so bad it doesn't even register on verification scores, lol, its one of td he worst out there for sure! Sorry Dave, it's a fact and Wolfie showed it nicely above with Saturdays event. It had rain up to Ottawa, lol, and now they Jack and that was in 2 days of runs. The GGEM is even better than the ICON and that's not saying much! 1 Euro 2 GFS 3 UKMET and then the rest usually fall in line somewhere in between those 3 with time, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Houses along Lake Huron are about to fall into the lake, cause this yr nothing is freezing! 3 already have fallen into Lake Michigan and that's nuts Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Yeah she definitely came a few tricks South and I think it continues to do so cause that HP means business! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

TWC has 12+[emoji1787][emoji1787] across the area and an area of 6-8" just to the South of KROC which is usually the case with these kinds of events. This time around though the biggest difference will be the hefty amt of LE cause temps plummet so enhancement should be beneficial throughout the area as moisture is plentiful so we'll see I suppose! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I think the Nam has the best presentation as far as 2M temps are concerned so we'll see but its still 3 days from fruition. Theres absolutely no way we dont ping or see plain rain Saturday and the only way we don't is if that Pig over the Central GL's can weaken quick enough to halt the mid lvl WAA cause that's the problem but not this far North. If this was a TRUE CUTTER we'd be approaching the mid 60's once again on Saturday but it's a hooker, whereas it hooks kinda NNW before it smacks into a tremendous HP situated over Ontario and Quebec Provinces and then it stops and heads straight East and almost Slightly ESE but it has to redevelop, absolutely must and if it doesn't, we're toast but I'm hedging the opposite way after looking more closely at the mid lvl but I hate the H700 prognosis cause it's just not a conducive one for an abundance of both Gulf and ATL moisture cause both are open for business. If one looks closely, you can see the convection from the Trop Pacific getting drawn North pretty much joining the gulf moisture heading NE which usually doesn't happen with a neutral ENSO butbit most certainly is. Personally I think the Atmosphere doesn't know WTF is going on across this planet the past several yrs or so it seems. It almost looks confused, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Yeah lets hope, lol!

I agree and raise you $5 that it goes higher, lol!

At the end of this illustration you can see a trough once again starting to form in and around HI and if it stays to HI West then I'd expect a dump of cold into the East the next couple weeks but sustained, IDK. If it propagates to its East as I think its going to then we get more of the same. Yeah I can speak of the AAM-GLAMM-MT ( Mountain Torque) and all those useless acronyms and what not, to perhaps sound intelligent, lol, but who would understand any of it on this forum except Met majors?

It's all connected as far as I'm concerned but some yrs some pieces have much more influence than others but I do not think its been the MJO as it has only come alive the past couple weeks as its been weak. The further away from the center of the graph it goes, the stronger the Kelvin Wave but the last couple months its been in the center of the circle doing diddly! The past week or so we've seen it come alive and now all of a sudden its gonna run things, Nah I don't think so, but I can be wrong. My concern about the MJO forecast going forward is that it NEVER enters the cold phases, 8-1-2 and part of 7 but none of them get there, so does that mean Winter is over in Mid Jan? I guess we'll see!

When there is an ever present trough over Hawaii just East of the DL it pretty much pushes everything Eastward as I mentioned yesterday with the forcing. If that forcing had been displaced further West as it is East we'd be under a constant Trough as the North atlantic has been! I may have an illustration Look at the constant trough out across the NA now imagine it over us and if the forcing didn't screw us the way it did we'd be having a much different discussion, lol

man I hope were all wrong and it changes on a dime and we head into mid Winter where we should be, lol!

We're both right in a sense and if someone mentioned the amped up PV and the atrociously + AO the past several weeks they would also be correct but saying the MJO is the leading force of our current pattern I'd have to disagree like I did, and that was solely the reason I did as there is never 1 aspect of our endlessly chaotic system that controls it all, NEVER! I never said you were wrong I just said I disagreed and I answered why!

The MJO wweak sauce both Dec and Jan so I don't know where all this MJO mumbo jumbo is coming from all of a sudden. Oh wait, OHWEATHER mentioned it so it must be correct right? The MJO is one aspect of our weather not the root cause but if you believe its running our pattern then I guess the IOD has no bearing, which is what I think has been running the pattern but it also ties in with the MJO so this is one debate that can go on for days and days. You have ur opinion and I have mine which has to do with the forcing the the Central Pacific in and around the DL which I mentioned yesterday but theres no need for this debate IMO!

forecast vs verification!

I disagree 100%