With a setup like this, that SLP thats developing in E.CO would end up over GB WI if the same pattern was present but this SLP is hitting a brick wall that stretches from S. Alberta all the way to the SE, yes sort of like a banana HP but not quite.
My guess is this SLP heads slowly ENE towards Iowa, Illinois and Indiana and then slows big time cause it has no choice due to the monstrous SHP situated right smack over the NE as you can clearly see the CAD happening all across the Carolinas.
If this was a traditional Cutter, like some like to call them all that head to our North & West but this SLP will fail to head to our NW as I think it will instead head East across extreme SO NYS or No. PA, thats my call and I'm sticking to it, lol, but I may be wrong but no way are we getting above freezing tomorrow or anytime during this event. If we mix its because of the mid lvl SLP's and not the Surface one!
The one place that may be easier to get past freezing would be extreme WNY and even they might not reach freezing either. The models don't have a good handle at all on this one so anything can happen, and I mean anything, lol! Even NYC has a good chance at some good front end thumping cause the HP over the NE means business!