CNY-LES FREAK

A glorified overrunning event is what I think were looking at!

Another words, they have no clue where the baroclinic zones gonna be! Good forecast IMO

+18C at H925 @9PM over WV, lol!

RLMAO!

2019-20' is the yr that if there is a chance of an event, chances are, it'll either change to rain or we'll taint and it should be no surprise at all to anyone. There is NO COLD AIR at all on our side of the globe and its not even on the other side, its right over the POLES hence the astronomically +++AO and its not changing anytime soon. Blah BLah BLah, -EPO, who cares as its Trumped by a -PNA and a super +NAO, RLMAO so I don't know why everyone is so surprised that its likely going to either rain or mix. Heck, it may even snow and accumulate, but its not like its gonna stay around for anyway, as we're right back into the upper 40's next week! IMO this season is Kaput, and if anyone thinks differently, then you can be one of the thousands that check every model run every 6hrs and watch how every event goes to absolute SHIT within 3-4 days of the event cause the models realize that WOW, there really isn't any cold air around, even to tap into, RLMAO, cause its sitting over Baffin Island and Lake Kara, lol! I'll be rooting for an extremely warm Fall next season, thats for damn sure!

We cant event get cold air for 2 -3 days at a time to hang around, never-mind sustained, which is 6-12 weeks, can you imagine that happening now? Well at least the Polar caps stayed put this yr cause thats where all the cold was this yr, up thataway, lol!

I get too sick to my stomach ever time the models run cause they all are absolutely useless and have been, period! Some of the 6 hr swings are just F'in maddening so those for me are OVER for sure as you can see! This yr is HOPELESS but as optimists we keep saying to ourselves, or at least I do, lol, when our turn, lol but it may never come this yr!

But the good news in all of this is that it can still snow, lol !!

I won't even talk about the Trop Pac because before December most of the forcing was West of the DL and all of a sudden it shifts almost 40 degrees East and so does our troughing! Look out in the North Atlantic, trough after trough after trough and it tells the story easily. our Rosby wave dispersion is off by several degrees and it has been since late November, when it all changed for the worse, and it hasn't gone back the other way so....

It's been quite amusing to me to read through the last few pages of this thread without posting, cause it surely shows how completely nuts we really are about Winter Weather, lol! I'm not being pessimistic but I just don't see anything materializing the next couple weeks and that brings us to the last Month of Winter and who really cares by then, lol. Yeah the EPO goes Negative for a time but having both a Super +PNA and a equally positive NAO pretty much negates the push of Cold Air out way or else we'd all be rejoicing right now even if one of the other indices were in the other direction, lol! What has been off all yr has been the timing of our beloved indices, lol! With that type of drop in the EPO I'd be rejoicing but when I see a PNA and a NAO the way they are I have to seriously laugh and say to myself, WTF is going on, lol, but unfortunately these kinds of Winters occur. Oh believe me, we'll get our week of Winter but it may in fact be, at the end of March, lol!

Thats an awesome storm track for sure so we'll see!

I can't wait till this season is over! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

low topped so radar is shooting over the clouds!

Back to a mix here with huge half dollars falling in between the rain and sleet that's falling, so we have every form of precip today falling! I'm starting to doubt we ever go over to just snow because we've been trying to now for hours and it just cant get there, lol, but ya never know once the sun sets so we'll see I suppose! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Now I definitely think the Nam is way off with us getting another round of mostly snow tomorrow afternoon through half the night, but it did well with the thermals though!

There's not much Synoptic moisture though so even if the Coastal were to strengthen, I still don't think it'd amount to much. Looks like the EURO just whooped all other guidance just like McGregor whooped Cerrone's ass in 40 seconds, RLMAO! No other guidance came close, lol, as they were practically all over the place!

Huge Parachutes falling, looks f'in awesome and if that Coastal takes over quick enough, we may stay as snow and this conveyor belt of moisture doesn't look like its moving too quickly! We're pretty much isothermal throughout much of the BL. Many more changes to come I'd imagine as well!

Significant pressure falls as well so there still may be somewhat of a chance, so we'll see!

Secondary did pop, and a lot further South than most guidance was showing so we'll see if she strengthens and pulls down whatever cold air that's to our North, which is not much!

Nothing better than 33 and rain Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

HeyTug, wherever you go or went, stay there, RLMAO Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Temp down to 33 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Snow mixing with sleet now coming down quite heavily hear about 20 miles North of the cuse Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Dont actually remember but if it was anything like this yr, and it most certainly was, so I'd say yeah, definitely, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

GFS now also says what secondary, lol!