CNY-LES FREAK

Yeah, I was gonna mention that as I'm about 18 miles to ur NNE and Wolfie's about 28 miles to my North perhaps a bit farther. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The heaviest action is directly between Wolfie and I, lol, and its headed ur way bro so you'll see the most from this bit o lift that zipping through, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Yeah just looked outside and its coming down at a decent clip but its wet and pasty, lol, accumulating to everything, 33F!

Super windy where I am I can tell ya that, with some light snow from the CF thats moving through but it heads back North, lol, so thats why the P&C went up to 2" as perhaps they were not to confident to forecast till the band formed, lol!

I pay absolutely no mind to precip maps cause they are wrong every single time and please do a study if ya want cause I did one, and I almost laughed.

KBUF doesn't sound so bad! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1259 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 .SYNOPSIS... The passage of a weak cold front will initiate some lake effect snow showers east of both lakes tonight...otherwise an increasing amount of attention will turn towards a plowable snowfall that will be experienced across the bulk of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will be followed by the coldest airmass so far this season to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front over southern Ontario late this afternoon will push across our forecast area this evening. While a vigorous shortwave associated with this boundary will help to generate scattered snow showers for some areas this evening...a lack of deep moisture will limit the coverage to areas closer to the lakes. This will especially be the case along the Chautauqua ridge and east of Lake Ontario where a short lived lake response will support nuisance accumulations of an inch or two...with up to three inches possible on the Tug. By daybreak Wednesday...warm advection will already be under way. This will shut down the response of Lake Erie by sunrise...while the residual lake snow showers near the Tug Hill will push north across Jefferson county while weakening to just flurries. Otherwise...a large surface high moving from the Upper Ohio Valley across the Mid Atlantic states will support fair dry weather while also encouraging at least partial clearing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Water vapor imagery displays a cut-off low pressure along the AZ/Mexico border and this feature will advance northeastward... eventually joining with a northern branch shortwave to form a deep positively tilted trough that will pass across our region to start this forecast period. The 12Z suite of models remain in good agreement at this stage, with both the passage of the upper level trough as well as the track of the surface low... with this surface low tracking from western TN Wednesday night to central PA Thursday morning and then off the northern New England coastline Thursday afternoon. To start Wednesday evening...our region will be dry, with point soundings displaying a dry wedge between 925-850 hPa. A southerly flow ahead of this upper level trough will be transporting moisture northward, with isentropic lift generating light snow across our region Wednesday evening as the lower levels saturate. Additionally a strong 220 knot 300 hPa jet will be generally W-E across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Canada this period, with the favorable right entrance region across our area Wednesday night and into Thursday. This jet will further increase the synoptic lift for precipitation. As the surface low tracks northeastward Wednesday night a baroclinic boundary will tighten over our region, with a warmer wedge of air across the Southern Tier, and towards the Finger Lakes. Along and to the south of this baroclinic boundary a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain will be possible...that could even change to plain rain late Wednesday night near the state line. Across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA snow will be the dominate p-type...with just a small chance of sleet/freezing rain late Wednesday night across WNY. As the surface low tracks to our east Thursday a much colder airmass will settle across our region, with precipitation becoming all snow by early Thursday afternoon. Moderate snow will be likely just to the northwest of the surface low...with this occurring late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning over parts of our region. Additionally 850 hPa frontogentic forcing will be increasing across WNY...leading to enhanced snowfall rates. Given the positive tilt to the upper level trough, speed of the surface low and lack of deep moisture in the dendritic snow growth zone, overall snow totals will generally be held to within the high advisory range. We will continue to mention this snow threat in the HWO. Thursday night a much colder airmass will settle across our region, with 850 hPa temperatures falling into the negative teens...to lower negative 20s Celsius across Lake Ontario and points eastward. This will generate a much higher SWE, with fluffy lake effect snow falling to the south and southeast of the Lakes. This activity will likely peak Friday afternoon...when inversion heights are at their peak and a very cold airmass creates steep instability over the still wide open lakes. Later Friday afternoon, a much drier airmass coinciding with the 850 hPa ridge axis will end much of the lake snows east of Lake Erie Friday evening. As winds become light over the region Friday night what lake snows are left south and southeast of Lake Ontario will contract back towards the Lake, with a tea kettle band of snow then drifting out over Lake Ontario as synoptic flow becomes light from the south. T I still don't know about the pos tilt cause I haven't looked yet but I will very shortly!

I haven't even looked at the models regarding this upcoming event yet, lol, cause with all the previous disappointments of the season, I find it hard to follow every run just to see the same prognosis day after day so now I wait till we're 1-2 days out and if its still a threat then I become a little more invested and I'm really not yet invested in this event but I am interested about the LE potential afterwards and it won't be a wickedly dry airmass like the last was so thats gonna help and with the temps forecasted, we can see some nice surprises anywhere in CNY. Its one of those airmass's that any or every cloud that passes overhead will contain snow, lol! If we can manage to see 4-6" before the LE, I'll be

I gotta to admit though, the salt they spew on the roads all across CNY but specifically the city and the burbs, if ya wanna call them burbs, is absolutely atrocious, like you'd think we've received 400" thus far. I've actually thought I hit road bumps in some neighborhoods that were salt piles, RLMAO, I mean it's f'in nuts and if no one understands what I'm talking about just head to the Salt City, Syracuse's nickname, lol!!

Yeah OK, lol, we 'll see rain with these CR's, nah doubtful!

I feel like I'm living on the Jersey Coast again as I'm loving all these events with temps in the low 30's cause flake size in both events were efficient and so is whatever we're seeing tonight. NwS ultimately says we go to rain, and I wont dispute that, but it may happen after most precip and lift exits stage right so we'll end up with some BR, lol, with an inversion!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I think we may have an overachiever on our hands as theres no sign of a mix anywhere as DP are in the mid 20's everywhere and there not rising much so.... its S+ right now where I am with a temp of 29F. NWS forecasted 2-3 slushy inches for the lower elevations and I think they may be wrong! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Yeah, I'd say I'm closing in on 14-16" cause we got crushed right after most of the Synoptic moist was stripped and then the LE started, but it was very low topped so the radar overshot the echoes after the initial band that was situated NW to SE and sat right over So. Oswego county before it slowly headed North towards Wolfie. I'd say, after the initial changeover, which occurred way earlier than anticipated so the colder runs from most guidance was definitely more correct so good for us, lol, but from the changeover to when it finally ended I'd say it snowed at an average of 1-1.5"/hr at times touching 2 during the most intense part of the synoptic part then came the LE! This is when I think we saw our most snow in the shortest period of time cause the ratios jumped to like 25/1" during the LE part and it fell straight down with very little wind so it accumulated quite efficiently but too bad the incoming air mass was/is too dry or else it'd still be snowing for sure! A 1026HP sits right above the Dacks so a stupid cold night is ahead for sure but with all 3 events I'd say we're close to 16"-18" other with 1/4" of fzrz as well so an awesome event and will be remembered! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's been RIPPING down here for the last few hrs and easily 4-5" fell within that time! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

And a little north of you is an 1"/hr as I'm in a nice steady band and I'm gettin smashed! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Rnd 2 is now forming off to our NW and its wasting no time at all. From Synoptic to LE instantly with no breaks in sight, just lovely I tell ya! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Keep looking at models like their really gonna help, lol, if you don't know whats going to occur by now, scientifically, just stick ur head out the window for the next 18hrs, lol and enjoy! Theres just too much information out there these days. Is it good for the public, but definitely not good for us weenies cause there's way too much info! Those were the days when the NGM and the AVN were run twice a day and we were lucky if the ballons were all released and all the data got ingested properly, lol. Whatever was forecasted thats what you went by cause thats all you knew besides the 6PM news segment we all waited impatiently for, as we watched out favorite Weather Man. Channel 9 way back in the day, in Jersey, we had, man I always forget his name, but he'd start off with a town and say Helllllllllooooooooooo and then say the town and then talk about that particular spot, he was Nuts but was good! Storm Field was my favorite from down NYC but my all time fav has to be Dave Eichorn when I first moved here as he also taught up at Oswego State as well. OSU took a few classes with him I'm pretty sure but he was the ultimate best on air and didn't even carry a BS in Meteorology, lol go figure!

2hr pressure falls are certainly worthy of bomogenesis!

Look at the H500 energy thats about to get injected into this developing Monster, absolutely sinister! I think this system may just have all the ingredients of of bomogenesis! I haven't checked pressure falls but I'd imagine their low all across the North East! SLP of 984 and dropping rapidly in CWV moving right over the sweet spot for W-CNY and points NE from there!

Mesoscale Discussion 0104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020 Areas affected...northern WV...western into north-central PA...parts of western NY Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071032Z - 071400Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are forecast to increase to around 1 inch per hour (locally higher) during the 530-900am EST period. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a precipitation shield gradually expanding in coverage across the upper OH Valley early this morning. Recent (4-5am EST) surface observations at Parkersburg, WV and Cambridge, OH in the upper OH Valley have recorded heavy snow as strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent rapidly approaches the region from the southwest. Model forecasts show a northeast-translating area of strong 700-mb frontogenesis moving from northern WV/southwest PA at 5am EST into north-central PA by 8am EST. Concurrent with the frontogenetic forcing, SREF model guidance indicates 1 inch per hour rates will accompany this northeast-translating forcing for ascent. Therefore, 1 inch per hour snowfall rates (locally higher during sub-hour bursts) appear likely this morning beginning in northern WV and developing northeast across western PA into parts of western NY.

It's just begun, give it a chance to consolidate! It's a 996 SLP in SPA moving slowly NE, lovely. H700 just closed off as well so its intensifying before our eyes! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Super heavy snow right now as we kiss the taint, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Down to 30F with a quickness but up above around H850 is where the warn tongue lies but should get beat down pretty quickly I'm hoping but if this H850LP was just 75 miles to our East we'd be in a very sweet spot. The saving grace is that theres no precip, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It should be able to absorb whatever does fall cause its extremely wet. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You'll be getting a long break as well cause there's nothing forming behind that small batch of precip, but you may get lucky. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk