CNY-LES FREAK

I'm driving on 481 North between 81 and route 31 and it has to be snowing easily over 3" an hour right now I'm doing 10 mph on the highway Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

NWS KBUF had to say b-ville just for Tug's sake, lol, even though itll be just to their North, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

A favorable setup continues to unfold for heavy lake effect snow over a portion of central NY tonight and Thursday. A broad upper level trough over eastern Canada, much of the Great Lakes and Northeast US will become re-enforced by a strong push of Arctic air from the north which will be the primary mechanism for lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario. Model guidance continues to hint at 850mb temps around -15 to -18 deg C...which is very favorable given that Lake Ontario water temperature is roughly +4 deg C. The cold air advecting in will be capable of generating 300-500 J/kg of lake induced CAPE, with steep lapse rates within at least a 6-8k ft mixed layer. Channeled convergent nw flow over the lake will also aid in the lift which will support a singular convective lake effect snow band that will likely have upstream support from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay...and possibly even Lake Superior. An organized band is expected to develop along the srn shore of Lake Ontario around 7 pm or so...and then extend east, eventually into the nrn Finger Lakes and wrn Mohawk Valley by 10 pm. The threat for heavy snow and snowfall rates will likely be highest from around midnight through 7 am. At this time there is the potential for 1-2 inch per hour rates which will create potentially hazardous travel conditions. The area most likely to see 6 to 10 inches will be from Baldwinsville to North Syracuse to Verona. The lake snow band will drop to the south Thursday morning after sunrise and weaken in intensity as drier air starts to move in and the next upper short wave causes wind to veer more to the north. This band will most likely interact with some Finger Lakes and some enhancement may be seen down wind/south of the larger lakes during the late morning and into the afternoon. May see a quick 1-2 inches in the favored areas of the southern Finger Lakes and srn tier of NY during the day Thursday. The upper wave passes with very dry air and winds backing to the west, and eventually sw Thursday night which will shift any remaining/weakening lake bands back to the north. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour at times from late this evening through daybreak on Thursday. WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. The greatest snow amounts are expected to focus across northern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties. WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wayne Cty sees the lion share of tonight's snow and perhaps a very small part of Monroe but that's questionable at best! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Snowing nicely at the route 31, I90 intersection and getting heavier as I head West so.. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Nah Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We're not gonna see anywhere near 12" or anywhere near 6", it'll be somewhere right in between somewhere and itll be North of me, that's a guarantee. I'm thinking Palermo, Fulton and Scriba East and I'll get missed by a few miles to my North! I've seen it play out too many times and it all has to do with Coastal fictional convergence with the concavity which encompasses Sodus Bay to north of Oswego! Wind hits there and doesn't know whether to go N-S-E-W, lol!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'd say it was better back then and worse today!

I'm already getting nice rates and its not supposed to be in till tonight unless this is a primer, lol! I had to ask for a personal snow storm and I finally got my wish, lol! after a surprise 6.5" yesterday when I was expecting rain was great and then this surprise personal SS is wonderful. Matt, stay in Florida cause since you and Wolfie moved to the area, it has taken a serious hit, average wise, lol!

I dont know if what's falling was forecasted cause I dont follow my areas p&c's but I doubt it had this kind of deformation band, and rates forecasted because its gotta be dropping at least 2"/hr right now, easily as this last hurrah coming through should leave behind 2-4" easy, but this yr, nothing's easy, lol!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Ugly

Nah, we're gonna see some nice hearty squalls this afternoon through the night which is what I was excited for, from the get, was certainly not for the synoptic side. A Progressive Positively tilted trough will never produce much, unless it's a slow moving CF with overrunning out ahead, otherwise this is what you get! On to the next debacle, next weeks rainstorm is trending---> Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

1" total!

Just imagine a full phase, lol, it'd be in the 50s right now, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Its gonna rain and it may do so quite hard for a few hrs. The totals NWS are touting are just jibberish if ya ask me, as I sit here with a temp of 38F at almost 1AM! Spring can't get here soon enough! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Thats some hilarious shit as its snowing like 50 miles to my South and I'm no where near the Lake but that would be something, wouldn't it, Ill keep all posted!

Its amazing this doesn't phase, wow! All the energy is already ahead of the trough!

Its a rapidly progressive Positively tilted system and we're lucky cause if the Northern stream really took hold of this in the Mid West, we'd be talking Cutter over Detroit so thank God for the progressive Positively tilt to this monster, or what it could have been. The cold snap would of been much more pronounced if the System was stronger and it cut, but I'll sacrifice a weaker system for no taint and lesser ratios, lol!

We won't be seeing any taint, thats a + but rates will take an immediate tumble and will most likely not be like the past 2 events. It felt like I was living on the coast again, with half dollar parachutes!

KBUF is toking on something special lately cause their discussions sometimes resemble someone with severe ADHD, not that ADHD is bad or anything, Seinfeld reference, lol!

We've gone over to S+ but it looks like it's not going to last much longer anyhow so we might hit 1/2" Maybe if it stays this heavy an 1" but that'll be it. I was expecting nothing so thats a +.