CNY-LES FREAK

Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 336 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Heres the 3KM Nam for tomorrow nights LES and whoever is under this band will get appreciable snows in a relatively short window as the band is pretty much gone by 12Z Monday. Look at the Omega and the converging winds at the surface!

Heres the GDPS for this Friday and its not looking to good for snow. All the other globals have Snow for the Thursday Friday event except the EURO so we'll see which way the others go or for that matter which way the EURO goes.

Well at least three of the big 4 have it except the darn EURO but perhaps it'll have it with tonights 00Z

Thats a decent event as well, too bad its not on all the guidance yet!

The GFS has a couple inches for tomorrows event but I'd go with the lower end which is NADA as thats the most likely outcome with the way the system looks tonight. A few more inches with tomorrow nights LE if it even comes to fruition, then 3-5" with Tuesday-Wednesday event and after that who knows, lol! Way too much action as it seems like we're gonna see snow every other day for the next 10 days or so. By Thursday morning 12Z the GFS has 11" over So. Oswego and throughout Northern Onondaga but I'd take that with a grain of salt even though its only 4 days out there's just too many events to get through including LE events in between synoptic events. Hell, if one of the LE events over performs, we can see that in a few hrs with a decent LE band so we'll see, but its definitely a very busy week fo sho!

Accumulated snow from the 00Z GFS for 7 days! Pretty damn Impressive I'd say

The EURO is completely on its own as it takes the PV and brings it all the way to west Canada and then it decides to drop it but nowhere near the extent of the GFS so definitely 2 camps right now and I'm in the GFS camp even though I hate the model.

Should be, its only 4 days out and I doubt it freezes in that time period!

Thats a nice little event but its on its own I believe, No

Yeah, PV intrusions aren't that easy to forecast especially their Latitudinal extent southward but I'm sure it'll be somewhat closer than what the Icon is currently showing. Once they start moving Southward its kind of hard to stop them, lol, kind of like an Avalanche but alot of other factors are at play here so we'll see. The EURO is completely different than all other guidance so many solutions are on the table for this week.

Trying to figure out why some of the .pngs show their content and some choose not to, weird but can't see it for some strange reason.

You would of absolutely loved January of 03' as it snowed every day and thats no exaggeration either as it began, I remember on New Years day with a clipper and then that was it, there was a NW-WNW flow for practically the whole month. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2003.html Go to this site and go to 2003 obviously January and start on the 4th and that's the pattern we want for sustained cold with copious amounts of snow, lol!

Looks like the PV is going to make a visit into the Northeast next weekend and as it drops it looks like something forms along the coast but its too far ots for it to affect anyone at this time anyway. Look at this, if they phase, look out forget about it its all over, lol!

Thats definitely an interesting look for Monday morning so perhaps we'll see but Tuesday into Wednesday looks like our next best chance for a sustained flow out of the WNW-NW

We need another train of Clippers like we saw last week or the week before. Thats when we get most of our snows here and in CNY

Not surprised one bit as this pattern is just not a good one for Me and Matt & points South and I knew this so its really not a disappointment to me cause I've seen it too many times in my 18yrs of living here.

Nah, this is a Mexico on North special. We won't see much action at all especially considering we're in a pretty stable pattern right now with hot many SW's in the flow so what you see is pretty much what we'll get the next few days or so. Tomorrows is pretty much toast but we might see some postcard light snow tomorrow just enough to whiten everything back up.

Erie band is gonna start seeding the Ontario band real soon so look out Watertown, WOW, I may just have to take a ride North to see this monster in action!

There's really not much energy with either Jet so no wonder why nothing is clicking or shall I say phasing. Both jets do have a disturbance but they stay separate like many have alluded to. If the winds didn't have to veer tomorrow with the Coastal, mini-Coastal shall I say, then winds would most certainly stay somewhat out of the SW or somewhere on the SW side, lol, or just oscillate between the 3. I believe anyway that some records will be broken with this band, definitely so we'll see I suppose. Theres gotta be 2-3/hr rates right now but maybe not.

Lake Erie band looks like its going to re-orientate itself on perhaps a SSW flow perhaps clipping the South towns pretty good but whole damn length of the lake is contributing to this colossal lake band, just effin incredible!

Definitely wrong, lol!

Looks more like a timing issue than a precip one but I may be wrong, lol

This should of been a good one for KROC, but guess not.

Wow, thats just Nuts!