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caviman2201

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Everything posted by caviman2201

  1. caviman2201
    Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide.
  2. caviman2201
    Euro'ing incoming... H is stronger and further west @ 102
  3. caviman2201
    Agreed. One hopes they just got tired of the chase with no reward and decided to take a break.
  4. caviman2201
    Isn't it supposed to be windy or something? 12Z NAM 3k has my area experiencing 25-30mph sustained w/ gusts in the 50s at 10am. I barely see the leaves moving...
  5. caviman2201
    I often wonder about this myself when I see people's posts on here about very severe storms. While I realize that people's hopes on a website aren't going to change where a storm hits, everyone is a hardass about tornadoes until one destroys their house or worse. I also think a lot of the people who root for tornadoes live in buildings they don't own... apartments, rentals, etc. That or they just don't think it can happen to them and don't much care if it happens to anyone else.
  6. caviman2201
  7. caviman2201
    Like this? https://www.mediaite.com/tv/don-lemon-bursts-out-laughing-as-panelists-mock-trump-and-credulous-boomer-rube-supporters/ "News" indeed. Both channels (cable news in general) are a mockery of journalism.
  8. caviman2201
    Its better on Pivotal than on WxBell... i may be cancelling my subscription soon and sending my $ to Pivotal lol
  9. caviman2201
    Crushing the analogies today, aren't we...
  10. caviman2201
    Makes total sense - thanks. Effectively the climo has shifted N/NW by a few miles... which since we were almost always extremely close to or on the R/S line, we're now more often than before S/SE of it. So BWI's climo is now more like Annapolis's was 40 years ago. Yours is more like BWI's was 40 years ago.
  11. caviman2201
    Maybe I'm dumb, but every chart I've seen depicting CC shows approx a 1 degree C bump globally since ~1980. Is that tiny amount really enough to cause such a drastic change already? I'm sure it can't be explained in detail here, but just looking for the Reader's Digest explanation. To the layperson like myself, 1 degree C warmer over a 40 year span doesn't seem like enough to change our climo drastically.
  12. caviman2201
    I feel like this has happened before... maybe recently... Just brutal.
  13. caviman2201
    Looking back at previous year NOHRSC Snowfall season maps to this date, we really aren't that far behind our typical climo for most years. Maybe everyone already knows this, but the data show the vast majority of our snow falls after today's date. Maybe others can fill in whether in previous years, by this time we could see a near term workable pattern or not, but at least its a small reason to still be optimistic this 'early'.
  14. caviman2201
    You can keep the scythe holstered for now... watch list if both of the next two storms are a fail...
  15. caviman2201
    going for a walk and thinking "at least it feels like winter outside"...
  16. caviman2201
    One positive from the next week of cold and dry is that the bay will cool down and theoretically diminish my perpetual 3 degree disadvantage
  17. caviman2201
    Which is both hilarious and sad given that a week ago, this thing was supposed to be an appetizer. We're just in a Chris Davis style slump right now... every once in a while we're able to put the bat on it and it dribbles through the infield, but we just can't seem to put any good wood on anything.
  18. caviman2201
    Forgive my ignorance - where are people seeing the init with 1048? Is this the 18z init?
  19. caviman2201
    Look at soundings though... lots of dry air at the BL... makes me wonder how much of that will actually hit the ground.
  20. caviman2201
    I'm having flashbacks to last year when the most amazing, epic pattern was 2 weeks away... until spring came.
  21. caviman2201
    The warm layer is so thin those of us E of 95 might be able to look up and watch our snowflakes melt. Might be snowing at the top of the Legg Mason building in the innner harbor and raining on the street lol. Side note, I wonder if thats ever happened somewhere with really tall buildings like NYC where the warm layer was so thin it was raining on the street but snowing on the tops of the ~1000ft+ buildings.
  22. caviman2201
    There's just no way thats rain... 36F surface with a -3C 925mb? Maybe white rain, but no way thats plain rain. IF (and a big IF) these models have the temp profiles right, I think many of them are missing the mark with p-type.
  23. caviman2201
    Way more worried about the north/warm trend than current temps. 00Z NAM 3K has BWI at 41 at 11p so it's right where it was expected to be. GFS has me way too close to that gradient now
  24. caviman2201
    someone is digging up the Ron Paul gif after that NAM'ing... you just know it
  25. caviman2201
    This is one of those events where MDOT lays down a billion tons of brine unnecessarily to avoid having to cut their budget next year.
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