beanskip
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Everything posted by beanskip
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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
beanskip replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Frankly, a bit surprised NHC hasn't initiated some sort of pre-cyclone advisories on this system. Seems quite likely that at least a tropical storm will make landfall within 48 hours in an area still recovering from Michael. It's getting very little play in the panhandle. -
Hi.
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How much for Ocala?
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22 HRRR actually reverts back to a snowier solution for Southern NC piedmont.
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21z HRRR continues trend of switching I85 and US 74 corridor over to sleet sooner.
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Early in the 21z HRRR, the high pressure is a mb stronger and further southwest. As a result, western piedmont switches over to snow an hour earlier at 1z.
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18z GFS hopping on the I85 sleet express.
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Much “sleetier” look along I-85 corridor on this HRRR run than prior run.
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Did Euro Kuchera map ever get posted? Would be appreciated.
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Can’t see model name??
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Anybody have the Kuchera maps for Euro?
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Surprised given how good 850s looked at 24 hours.
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Upstate should be smiling from first frame of euro.
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Just at 6 hours, the 12z GFS 850s improved the entire length of York and Cherokee counties in SC.
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It seems to me the only way to forecast this storm is to start with QPF and move backward. So, if you are projecting, say, 2 inches is liquid and you are projecting 2 inches of snow, you’ve still got 1.8 of QPF to spend.
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It must be nice to speak so authoritatively on a subject so few have been able to fully grasp. I envy that. True clarity is much harder for me. By the way, you opened a parenthesis and didn’t close it.
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Evidence of the 12z shift to colder.
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But it trended better than 6z run. More snow before changeover to sleet/zr, at least per radar graphics.
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Strange NAM run — much less precip in most of NC. Also went back to raging sleet storm for I 85 and even I 40 corridor.
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Actually, as most of the other models did today -- it mainly EXPANDED north. The southern periphery is roughly he same, but the northern periphery grew.
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Even the Kuchera numbers are insane.
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I must say I'm developing quite the weather crush on the FV3 - it gets colder every run! This is how weather models are SUPPOSED to work!
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But at 36 hours, 850s noticeably further south in S.C.
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At 30 hours, 850's slightly less impressive -- still basically holding serve.
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Struggling to find differences between 18z GFS and 12z run through 24 hours. Not succeeding.
