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From the top of the TLH AFD: National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 510 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 ...IDALIA EXPECTED TO SLAM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS A MAJOR HURRICANE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 504 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 You need to complete your preparations today if you live in the Florida big bend. To put this system into the historical context, there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don`t mess around with this. Follow the advice of your local emergency management.

Coarse maps on Euro annoyingly hard to extrapolate when the 36-hour mark is the key window.

WEST WEST WEST 0z GFS stays west with landfall near Alligator Point. 0z CMC makes huge jump west -- almost 100 miles -- and now is all the way over to St. Marks!

Is there some empirical data to support all of these anecdotes about past Gulf storms that ended up east of model projections? If that were a thing, wouldn't there be a study of it or something?

Meanwhile the 0z NAM is all the way over to Apalachicola about 100 miles west of its 18z run. Crappy model? Yes. Umpteenth west trend today. Yes, too.

Yeah, Hermine was barely a Cat 1 and shut down Tallahassee for a week. Something like this would be beyond catastrophic given the pervasive tree canopy.

For Tallahassee/St. Marks/Apalachicola Bay, this is is a huge shift, more in line with the hurricane models and GFS. Another move or two like this and that area moves from the left to right side (or straight shot) of the storm. Night and day difference. The west trend has been clear all day -- I guess if it isn't going to hit Tampa Bay it must be fake news ... whatever.

Uh oh -- pretty sizeable westward jog of the 18z Euro vs. the 12z run.

Understood and I agree. BUT, for those of us concerned about staying on the west side of landfall, 60 miles can mean a lot!

Tiny little jog west vs. 0z but (thankfully) not following the hurricane models which would likely result in my untimely death.

CMC goes east -- basically the first model to trend that way since 18z runs yesterday.

12z ICON: West 12z GFS through 51 hours: West (of its westernmost solution). Euro still a safe bet, but it is becoming increasingly isolated to the east.

Well, I know we're not supposed to talk about the NAM for tropics -- or much of anything else -- but it is showing a pretty striking trend to the west and slower on its 12z run. Given that King Euro crept west at Oz and the hurricane models did at 6z, I think something might be going on here.

Would love to see the op run plotted on there.

Is there history on the direction of this miss. These two examples are both to the right -- is that a known bias or just a coincidence for these two?

This is excellent. To wit, it does not appear the pressure is dropping per latest recon pass.

Seems to be no mention of the decided westward trends in some of the models (in addition to the pronounced slowing trend). 0z Euro went slightly west. The HMON went more than a full degree of longtitude west. CMC -- west. GFS held serve with its western track.

Cutter ....

Changes from 12z Euro compared to yesterday's run are almost comical. The GFS is probably out to lunch, but anybody who declares this over is practicing high-level buffoonery.

Would love nothing more for this to pan out for all my SE peeps, but extreme caution is in order. Banking on the GFS as an outlier is like going to a Globetrotters game and thinking THIS is the time when the Washington Generals will beat them.

Surge pictures are incredible. Watching CNN right now with Bill Weir in Punta Gorda currently in the eye. I must say the wind damage is surprisingly less than I would expect from a strong Cat 4.

Link?

I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast.

What’s missing about the Charley comparisons is the potential for storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. The main part of the harbor was on the left side of Charley, which passed over Captiva Island. A storm that makes landfall at, say, Englewood or Stump Pass, to the north, would drive water through Boca Grande Pass and right up into the harbor. I would think that narrow pass would be overwhelmed causing big issues on Gasparilla Island as well.

At 54 hours, it's not as markedly east of 12z run. Of course, 25 miles is the difference between living and dying with this guy.