beanskip
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Everything posted by beanskip
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Also, surface low is a decent bit WNW of 6z position -- offshore of St. Mark's on 6z at 96 vs. near Defuniak Springs at 90 hours on 12z.
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850 temps at 90 hours actually a touch warmer than 6z run -- not much at all, but a bit.
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500mb trough a bit sharper at 12 vs. 6z. Maybe a tad slower too.
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12z NAM surface low position at 0z Sunday (84 hours) almost right on top of 0z Euro position at the same time (96 hours) -- both over the south-central La. coast.
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Yeah, has a noticeable impact on dewpoints -- running a couple degrees warmer through NC and Va. All background noise unless it turns into a trend.
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Man, there was some terrible Euro analysis last night. If you're going to stay up that late, at least get it right. Couple observations: 1) EE rule is in effect. For newbies, the NAM used to be called the ETA. The EE rule is that if the Euro and the ETA are in agreement, take it to the bank 2) This also reminds me of the "Larry Cosgrove" storm from about 10 years ago (strongwx/QueenCityWx/Lookout/HKY and others will remember) when he came on the boards and pooh poohed those who argued that the models were underforecasting the CAD based on the position of the high. Needless to say, he hasn't been back to the board since and the entire southeast was crippled. 3) I'm trying to remember a system with such widespread QPF consistently forecasted from a week out -- heck, even in the short term I'm not sure I ever remember 3+" of QPF forecasted with a winter storm. Have to wonder if the models will accurately predict the interaction between that much water and the rest of the atmosphere. 4) Wish I was still up there to be in the thick of things!
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Forgot about the old "EE rule" -- it's in effect!
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Much more modest QPF from 18z GFS vs. 12z -- less than half the ouput in some places -- I guess lack of cooling from heavier precip could have affected temps. Edit: Could also just be that 18z is slower.
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Uh, hello -- the GFS basically stalled the low from 108 to 114 hours -- barely moved from Pt. St Joe to Lake City.
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Wow - cool to see the GFS trying to show wraparound CAD moving into SE Tennessee at 108 hours. I think that's a good indicator of how much the models may be underestimating the wedge. Paging Larry Cosgrove! ;-)
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Historic. And while every weenie's dream come true, also ... a natural disaster, if it verifies.
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12z Monday Euro -- only NW 1/4 of NC was sub zero 850 and low was over Tifton, Ga. 12z Tuesday Euro -- virtually all of NC and the I-85 corridor in SC are sub-zero 850s and the low is over Tallahassee.
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Oh wow -- MUCH better look for N.C./S.C. at hour 120 (vs. 144 on 12z Monday run) -- 850s locked in. EDIT: Surface low way down over TLH -- probably a perfect spot.
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LOL at FV3 surface low track (at least as depicted on TT) -- it makes a perfect right angle from hours 108 to 120 -- goes due north, followed by due east. Unlikely ....
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Canadian back to a Miller B -- all rain for CLT. EDIT: Takes low up into NW Alabama (!) before the transfer.
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Strange -- GFS takes surface low north of 6z position, but CAD is stronger.
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Everything a touch south (cold air and low pressure) through 96 hours of 12z GFS. EDIT: Hmmm, also more negative tilt at 500 mb.
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To accept the 12z Euro 850 temp profiles verbatim is to accept that there are sub 0c 850 temps in Orlando but not in RDU or GSO at 192 hours. More likely, the model does not yet have a handle on fine details at this range. Better, as Wow suggested, to look at the big pieces on the board.
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Yeah, it sure is in a nice spot, right up there over PA/NY border.
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Big issue with temps on Euro run -- 850 Oc line barely making it into NW part of N.C.
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Compared to yesterday's 12z Euro, HP not nearly as robust and 850s have retreated a bit over Carolinas/Va. That's not to say it won't still work out, of course ....
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I have an etiquette pet peeve -- people who see a great model run and feel they have to make some reference to the release of body fluids -- usually from a male reproductive organ. I know these references are figurative (or at least I pray they are, lest the true lack of a life of some posters be revealed) but they are still tired and unfunny and I would love to never read one again.
