beanskip

Much better, sharper 500mb look on the 12/21-22 system.

12z GFS following the trend of other models -- moving the storm inland over Honduras. No chance of those early-week Cat 4 solutions if that happens.

Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf?

No way all these tornadoes are going to be able to avoid high population areas forever. What a remarkable outbreak.

Seems to me the key is -- when does Milton cross 84W? 6z Euro doesn't have this happening until 27N. Hurricane models -- more like 26.4 N.

Don't remember this kind of language on surge gradients from NHC: We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur.

Looking closely at the 18z Euro, it's tracking right toward the mouth of Tampa Bay but takes a late right turn to come in around Bradenton. It then heads due east for another 3-6 hours, then starts adding a more northerly component. I think the difference between a Tampa Bay direct hit and a Bradenton/Sarasota track is going to be the timing of this turn which pretty much every model has shown happening either pre- or mostly post-landfall.

I think it's noteworthy that all 4 18z hurricane models trended at least slightly (in some cases ever so slightly) to the south vs. their 12z runs. I sure wouldn't want to be at Bradenton Beach or on Longboat Key this time tomorrow.

18z HAFS-B trending slightly -- but not insignificantly -- south vs. 12z run through 27 hours. Also trending stronger.

Correct and it was the isolation of the spaghetti plots/NHC track vs. ... pretty much every other model, that was so stark. Allan Huffman captured it well (and this wasn't even the westernmost NHC landfall point). https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138

So the 18z spaghetti plots have every single landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This is coming off a disastrous Helene performance that was far to the left of the global and hurricane models but which, inexplicably, the NHC hugged until the bitter end. Will be interesting to see the official track at 5.

The only 1 of the 4 hurricane models that doesn't show pre-landfall weakening, it should be noted.

Another pass at 925 mb. Meanwhile, 12z HAFS-B showing considerably more weakening near landfall vs. 6z run. Up about 10 mb run over run in last few hours before landfall. EDIT: Same with HAFS-B, but HMON is actually stronger vs. 6z.

One thing I noticed with the 18z Euro and now with the 0z GFS is pretty nifty little right turn shortly after landfall. What's really interesting is that the new CMC makes that right turn BEFORE landfall and so what looks like a Tampa landfall ends up being south of Sarasota, almost to Venice. Keeping in mind Helene's late wobble to the right, this might be something to keep an eye on.

HAFS B comes in 27mb too high at the start ...