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jewell2188

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Everything posted by jewell2188

  1. jewell2188
    Doesn’t look promising right now. Radar is rather pathetic...at least we have filtered sunshine...makes the humidity bearable
  2. jewell2188
    All seems very iffy again. Lots of clouds all morning here in newington. Still waiting on the region wide severe/flood event
  3. jewell2188
    I have noticed! As I said this morning, this “threat” today and tomorrow went from exciting to meh in 24 hours. Certainly has been a change from this time last year.
  4. jewell2188
    I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe.
  5. jewell2188
    Another dud.
  6. jewell2188
    It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh
  7. jewell2188
    From where? Nothing remotely close
  8. jewell2188
    No surprise, cloudy here most of day.
  9. jewell2188
    Nudge that south a bit and I’ll take it.
  10. jewell2188
    A cold front will approach the area from the north today. The front will stall out nearby on Monday and remain nearly stationary across the area through the middle of next week. It may finally shift southeast of the region by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A very warm and humid air mass will be in place today coupled with a lee-side trof and weak 500 mb wave will aid in t-storm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively strong with 40kt at 500mb contributing to 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear. A few severe t- storms are expected late this afternoon through late this evening. Northern and central Maryland appears to be at greatest risk of severe thunderstorms with t-storm coverage decreasing markedly south of I-66. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the biggest threat given the moderately strong flow aloft and fast storm motions (~ 30kt). The severe wx threat should wane after 10PM or so, but risk of t- storms will likely persist well into the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday still appears as it will be the most active day this week with a slow moving front nearby and ripples of upper level energy aiding in t-storm formation. Shear and storm motions will be weaker suggesting an increased flash flood threat especially given mid- level flow becoming parallel to sfc front which will also favor training. CAPE values, on the other hand, are expected to be much higher than on Sunday, which also support a severe wx and flash flood threat. A flash flood watch may be issued for some areas at this time tomorrow once confidence in location of t-storms increases. Simulated satellite imagery from various global models indicate convection will be more widespread and intense than today.
  11. jewell2188
    LWX from this morning Although more precise timing and finer scale details remain uncertain, there is increasing confidence in a heavy rain and flood threat early next week, and possibly again later next week.
  12. jewell2188
    It’s been pretty much dying off approaching the I-81 corridor all day.
  13. jewell2188
    Pretty weak sauce garden variety storms. Not even sure a watch was warranted. Drove through the cell approaching warrenton, very typical storm.
  14. jewell2188
    Round two is quickly weakening.
  15. jewell2188
    Stepped outside, feels like another meh kind of day. Seems as though we are moving away from the extreme wet pattern we’ve been in for the last year so that’s a plus lol.
  16. jewell2188
    Still haven’t had that significant outbreak area wide.
  17. jewell2188
    It’s almost like the wording they used that they have no clue lol. Seem like a typical summer day with pop up storms nothing out of the unusual.
  18. jewell2188
    This was taken from brandy station (culpeper county) close to the fauquier county line. It certainly looks like a well defined supercell.
  19. jewell2188
    Just drove through the town of Warrenton some pretty sizable branches sheared off of trees all within less than a half mile radius. Lots of flash flooding though.
  20. jewell2188
    Fake picture or not, i for the life of me can’t understand why or what satisfaction people get from posting photoshopped pictures.
  21. jewell2188
    All sun in Springfield since early this morning. Quite warm out.
  22. jewell2188
    Tired of slight risk!! When was the last enhanced or mod risk we had ??
  23. jewell2188
    Incredibly weak in warrenton. Hardly no lightning or thunder....on to the next.
  24. jewell2188
    Seems interesting bc you seem to be hugging the GFS
  25. jewell2188
    Deff mixing with sleet in falls church
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