Also, this discussion is why I laugh over the “you don’t want to be in the bullseye ___ days out posts” -
my experience is that the general area that starts to get bullseyes repeatedly early enough in a threat cycle has the best chance at legit warning level SN+ for a time verifying at some point.
bullseye my area on every run for every threat, please and thank you. Not been like that either for years and years up this way. For all the shit that certain cranks on this board give to models in the long range, as someone who reads in those threads way more than posts, the models are pretty fucking great at highlighting early on the areas most likely to be snowiest in a given period. And they’ve been pretty great at showing this area on the edge over and over again from range. This current storm threat they’ve been rock solid at that for at least a week.