North Balti Zen

We held out! (barely)

Tonight I think! Or maybe tomorrow night?

Woo???? (We are in the naked eye view line potentially) https://www.twitter.com/hunterhurleywx/status/1844013849458233533?s=46&t=rKRo5ildsXjOFWkYH7wDlg

Yes, I posted in a few other threads in the forum. Visible in northern MD.

Hey folks, if you are away from lightwash, I think it's a go for tonite. Visible in northern MD.

I was up north of White Hall, MD at Star Bright Farm for a piano concert in their gorgeous restored barn this evening and after it was done and walking to the car I 100% thought I saw streaks of northern lights starting to be visible about 8:20 pm- checked through the phone camera and absolutely it was. Worth looking north for anyone away from lightwash this evening, I think.

yesterday and today were SO good weatherwise - looks like two weeks of this maybe. After 13 days of rain, I am more than ok with that.

EH. Strong disagree. It's best 2 of 3 - it's a 0-0 game in game 1 and we know that 88% of the teams (14 of 16) since MLB went to this best of 3 initial round format who win game 1 go on to win the round. Ragens was also dealing and runs were at an absolute premium. The ball was not snuck through the hole, it was an absolute line drive base hit. The simple quick analysis is that with two outs and a runner on third and first base open, giving an intentional walk to what will be the easy runner-up for the AL MVP and who, in a year other than the one Aaron Judge just had, would be the MVP, it is a really REALLY simple calculation to put him on and take your chances with Pasquatino. Witt's OPS for 2024 was .977. Pasquantino's OPS for 2024 was .760. I simply cannot get on board with pitching to Witt in that spot in a 0-0 game in the 6th where one run might (and did) decide it. I don't care that Burnes wanted to get him. Hyde should have over-ruled that 100 times out of 100. If Pasquantino beats you, so be it, but the better hitter, by FAR, was Witt. Take the bat out of Witt's hands. Again, it is SUCH a short series, there is not time for genital-measuring from Burnes over "I wanted to get Witt". I don't care. I don't care times 1000. They literally let KC's best hitter and one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball beat them in a spot where they didn't have to give him that chance. Fwiw, I said this in real time, before the at-bat, from section 356. Couldn't believe they took the chance on pitching to him. Even if they had gotten him out, it would have been bad process. Hope Os can overcome the odds and be one of the 12% to overcome being down 0-1 in a best of three, but that decision REALLY REALLY was questionable in real time. Just hate everything about it.

Apparently 12 straight days with measurable rain in the Balt metro area now.

September rainfall across the region - the dry deficits switched to our NE for the most part. https://x.com/nwsmarfc/status/1841238116369383755?s=46&t=rKRo5ildsXjOFWkYH7wDlg

I remain extremely puzzled and kinda baseball fan irate that Hyde elected to pitch to Witt in that spot in the sixth rather than give him the intentional free pass with first open and two outs.

Fwiw, I thought this piece by CWG was excellent - they discuss some of what we’ve touched on - they also agree NWS was outstanding with the dire forecast and tried to get the danger and warnings out/communicated and also discussed how hard that is/can be. again, I am not having this discussion to blame anyone/or the NWS. Was more musing over how hard it is to get general warnings out anymore when people receive their news from so many different sources etc. https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1841109507834826775?s=46&t=rKRo5ildsXjOFWkYH7wDlg

Right. That’s literally what I said. Did you think I was blaming NWS when I said they did nothing wrong? Was just having a more philosophical discussion/set of musings over how fragmented media is now and how relatively much harder it is to get the word out to people. And also said not sure what if anything can be done. No worries , won’t discuss it here or anywhere. My bad.

@gymengineertotally correct - I thought NWS nailed this and that was what I pasted to my father-in-law in part and stressed to him that the language they were using was not done lightly. I don’t think NWS did anything wrong, I just don’t know how you get out warnings anymore to large numbers of people in these situations. We don’t have shared media experiences anymore. People get their news and updates from so many different places not sure what can be done.

YUP. literally, if I hadn’t texted him repeatedly and pasted the very strong language from NWS in their warning they put out before the rain event started it would not have been something he paid attention to. He watches no news really.

Quick (longer) note - if you look at a google map from Greenville, SC running north to the TN/VA/NC convergence and look about 75 miles on either side of Asheville - that is the area that got decimated. In any event, if you look at a google map of that area and drill down even a little, marvel at how many small creeks and streams there are beyond the larger rivers in that watershed. Just look, if you want, at the drive north from Brevard, NC (where my father-in-law is just east of there in the Connastee Falls area) up to the Asheville airport which is south of Asheville proper - (gonna drop a link to that part of the map maybe - see if this works) - https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Brevard,+North+Carolina/Asheville+Regional+Airport,+61+Terminal+Dr+%231,+Fletcher,+NC+28732/@35.3389373,-82.7253159,12.25z/data=!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x8859a4cb5640a41d:0x8f85466844a544b3!2m2!1d-82.7342919!2d35.2334472!1m5!1m1!1s0x8859ecbd4fbaf423:0x9a75498c5b42908b!2m2!1d-82.5378541!2d35.4348962!3e0!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D Zoom in a hair on that section and marvel at all the little streams and waterways running out of the hillsides in just that stretch of NC 280. Per the link to the after event overview I put above, roughly 12-30 inches of rain fell in that area from around Brevard up to the Boone, NC area north of Asheville and to points east and west of that line. That entire area is dotted, littered with, replete with, streams/creeks and what have you running from the mountainsides down to the lower elevations. They run dry or very low normally. However, you dump that much water into that ENTIRE AREA and it is an unmitigated disaster over a huge area. So many enclaves of homes, communities, and the like dot that whole area and many MANY of them you turn off a road like NC 280 and cross a small bridge to access the homes up hillsides. A LOT of those small bridges are gone. And that is before you even consider that portions of I-40 and I-26 are gone, or the washouts on main highways like NC 280 (like what you see in the pics from Chimney Rock/Lake Lure) or Swannanoa. The sheer amount of road infrastructure that has been affected and wiped out is mind-boggling. Then, add in that power lines and cables ran beside and under those same roads and...well...yeah, that whole area is proper fucked. The main centers of commerce and distribution (Asheville, Boone, Hendersonville) were completely inundated. The smaller quaint tourist communities and residential towns like Banner Elk, Chimney Rock, Beech Mountain (cut off from Banner Elk by road collapse) and too many others to name that lay alongside small rivers have either massive road damage, home damages, or, in Chimney Rock's case, most of the town missing and floating in Lake Lure. They are still counting the dead and missing. I sent my father-in-law pointed long texts on Wednesday advising him to stock up on food, check batteries, and above all else not to go out once the rain started Wednesday night, he had not really paid attention or heard many warnings about the danger prior to that. I don't blame the NWS or media, frankly, for that, it is really hard to get people's attention in interior areas on flood risks, or articulate the dangers of this kind of extreme rain total scenario, and I am sure that is being analyzed now going forward, but not sure what can be done, really. People need to get better educated on the dangers of this kind of extreme weather outcome in the current climate change model, I think. Not enough zealots like us on this board who went to school on what happened in Houston with Harvey, or excess rain and flooding like in Nebraska not too long ago, to educate people fully I guess. Combo of terrain, miles affected, and nature of the impacts to roads and bridges gonna make this one a long LONG recovery process.

Maybe in several divisions frankly.

It’s SO bad. I’ve been following local sources for days to do what I can to get good info to my father -in-law - and it is truly tragic . I will type longer at some point about exactly why it is so bad - but , yeah, bad.

Ravens will slaughter my bengals next Sunday. Congrats in advance. Bengals have one of the worst run defenses I’ve ever seen. That’s probably…bad given what the ravens are about.

If you all want a really good detailed read on the western North Carolina impacts and meteorological setup as it unfolded - https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2024/09/rapid-reaction-historic-flooding-follows-helene-in-western-nc/

I mentioned I think in this thread my father-in-law lives in Brevard, NC (south of Asheville - we heard from him last night - he’s safe - he was lucky to find one tiny area that got a little signal to get a call out.) He really has no idea how bad it is areawide - he’s mostly trapped behind fallen trees on the roads around him and one smaller one on his house but he’s ok. the pics from that whole area up to the TN /NC border are horrifying- I’ve vacationed and visited that whole area for decades. In some cases whole towns are gone.

0s magic number is 1, right? They just need 1 win (or, I guess a Tigers loss, but, yeah given they are playing the White Sox...) - in any event a win and they secure home field for the 3-game wild card series?

You doing the music festival? If so, enjoy!!!

So…20-30 inches of rain forecast for Brevard, NC - where my father-in-law is. Beyond catastrophic for them. They have elevation. There will be landslides along with unreal flooding.

Been a LONG time since we've had this kind of reverse bust with precip. Nice to have.