North Balti Zen

Just now, mappy said:

you're ruining it for yourself. just enjoy the ride friend. we are going to get snow. Will it be 10 inches? 5? who knows, and honestly I personally do not care about the amount. Enjoy the snow  

I’m fine - i‘m in banter for a reason.  But if we stay dried up and halt around three inches while another foot falls to the south in a version of Jan 3/4, 2022 that’s gonna suck. 

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Don't get too caught up in every model run.  Its gonna move some

Euro and Ukie have been steady for several runs now at extending the warning level storm drought up my way. Don’t like it.

I genuinely hate various Europeans today. 

Most disrespectfully, the UKIE can go fuck itself. 

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s getting tough when everything looks so good 

If you TRULY were the snow weenie you claim to be...your only choice is to skip your vacation...

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I swear, if I’m that goddamn light gray….

That is the permanent color on his maps for my part of northern Maryland, tracker. 

If we lose another one to the south, have half a mind to start a separate thread on here for in the future threats for those in a general line from @T. Augustover to @mitchnickand @TSSN+for future storm discussions...

(kidding not kidding)

@mappy

Moving this here for longer comment so as not to clutter the storm thread -

Quote

honestly, I'd laugh very hard if by Sunday night the storm missed most of the forum and we spent all this time tracking something we don't actually get. 

I think DC area and either side of DC to the east and west is in a great spot in either a "souther" or "norther" scenario. They've been progged around 6 inches at worst in most every run save one. Our area and the area south of DC have varied between "hell yes" and "hell no" from run to run for days. My snow-missing PTSD has kicked in watching the Euro especially for us northerners.

Which is to say, and this is why I moved this to banter, you are entirely correct that snow is an IMBY game and the board shows its teeth in winter storm set-ups. 

I just wanted to pause for a minute because some really good posters on here from the DC area really don't appreciate how long between drinks up this way it has been from a legit flush hit winter storm warning level storm. Six years by my count for my area. We were close to five inches in of the January storm in '24, but I don't think I quite got there at my house. The January 2022 miss was hilariously painful (watching Ji complain for weeks and then get ten or so inches of powder while this area got 1/2 an inch of dust sucked) - so, in any event, "it always comes north" stuff that gets blithely posted tends to rankle. It doesn't. In some set-ups, sure. In others, NOPE. This storm and its modeling shows it is one of those storms that is amenable to the best lift being forced south of northern parts of the forum - and THAT is something which we have seen over and over again for years. And, not just in winter, happened a LOT in the last few springs and summers (just that doesn't get commented on as much).

In any event, as always, hoping for a path to an area-wide win (or at least as much of the area as possible), but seeing "thread the needle" from some of the red taggers with respect to the final pieces harshes my mellow up this way, and the Euro is really piling on the bad vibes. 

Again, I think DC folks and west and east of there are in a great spot in most scenarios. The eye of their needle looks appreciably larger than the eye of the needle for the Chill-area folk or the folk up our way (our best runs are the Chill-area's worst and vice versa). The tension in the posting on model runs is that. So when someone posts "norther" or "souther" doing drive-by PBP it really isn't helpful without calibrating that comment through their area.  

Good luck all, except, really, I mean, good luck to my area especially. We are overdue up here. One of these storms will not get shunted, I hope. Perhaps this one. 

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's that lobe north of Maine that is now showing up and sinking south, pushing everything down.

The euro is a real blaring warning signal for us. This would be another galling miss up this way if it unfolds like this. 

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

not enough coffee yet to appreciate the discussion. 

Also, I don't see the big deal in TSSN posting with us. Hanover is 5 miles north of the MD line. It's not that far off and 'out of our area'. I mean, I'm only 3 miles from the PA line, and I know if I posted in the Central PA forum, they'd welcome me. lol 

It’s so weird. For years losetoa6 posted from there - I just assumed everyone knew Hanover area was part of “our” area. 
 

I mean, our forum encompasses the I-81 spine for godsake - those folks are as different winter weather wise from the Calvert county folks as you can get and we share the same forum - I don’t see why ten miles north of Manchester should be made to feel unwelcome.

1 hour ago, T. August said:

Euro is straight-up paltry north of Baltimore. 4.6” imby, and an inch of that is from tomorrow.

It absolutely sucked. 

1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

I dont care about the PA thing.  Your location actually makes sense to be with us.  It's just that you should realize you will overperform in a colder solution  There will be secondary banding that modelling isn't picking up.  A secondary QPF maxima.  You know this.  If the models give you like .60 cold QPF, I'd probably swing for the fences in your backyard and go 8-12"

Maybe? No reason you should know this but it is closing in on six years since a warning level event for northern Maryland outside of mtpsu.  I’ve seen this a LOT in that timeframe - this area gets dried out and missss the goods to the south.

Jan 3/4,2022 which was half a foot or so in Columbia and 6-10 from DC to Ji-land etc was less than an inch for my area of northern Baltimore county. Whatever dynamics go under “always goes north” haven’t been the dominant player for awhile.

in any event, congrats to central VA up to DC on a nice set of runs. 

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

La la lock it up.   The subforum is staring down a WSW event.

Not up my way on that. Would be another wsw fail. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

it seems alot more south

It is. It’s bad for up my way. 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

so on SV...Northern crew got noticeably drier

As always 

@NorthArlington101 

Quote

I guess, don't mean to deb.

Um...you sure about that?

Just came out of a meeting and...I approve of what just ran from the ICON/GFS/GEM - well done all.

You all get gold stars for the day.

2 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Question: I've seen at least two references to dry slot. Where/when does this happen? Thx.

Are you asking specific to modeling for this storm or is that a general question?

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

I think we might have to be ok with another 3-4.9” storm

sigh. It is really pretty funny how we can't break that cap and have not for years and years now.

Side note, when tracker (bless his heart) always types about how things always adjust north at the last minute...well...no? Has not been the case for awhile now - at least with respect to our area. Maybe this time, but, the pacman wall has done dirty work on us for a long time now. Jan. 2022 was beyond infuriating. 

1 hour ago, T. August said:

That was last night. We can start the push north now

Seconded

6 hours ago, T. August said:

We can stop the push north now

No?

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s .2” more for your backyard than 12z!

You can leave for vacation anytime now…

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We may do better on Friday than Monday.

Years and years of this crap now up this way, it’s so tiring to see unfold over and over again. 

27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The wetter storm cancels out the faster/souther mostly. A better run… kinda forgot how bad 12z was. 
 

 

That’s fucking awful. 

58 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Between runs so I’ll drop the banter here, but if the last five years is any indication, that’s to be expected. I wouldn’t complain if this was the outcome because I’m so starved for snow, but this has been the trend over and over in recent years for the right around Bmore crowd. 

YUP . ITS ALMOST HILARIOUS NOW