North Balti Zen

43 minutes ago, mappy said:

Mr Map said we have 1.5”. Snowing in SYR this morning too. Heading home!

Genuinely funny to me - I have right at 2" - or, just 1" less than 10 hours of snow on Monday. It's really pretty up here this AM. Have a safe drive. 

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW, I am not so sure we actually want storms to look "suppressed" in the long range anymore.  That was a guidance bias 20 years ago, and we still say "just where we want it" when guidance has some southern wave day 10, but is it really what we want?  How often has that worked out lately?  Actually over the last 5 years or so a lot of our snow was rain on the guidance day 10.  More that I can remember than storms that were suppressed and trended north.  

 

Pattern recognition is important here.  When a model run shows some snowstorm day 13 despite the fact that almost every pattern driver is wrong we can be 90% sure its going to end up rain.  But when the pattern in general is good, I am getting to the point where I would rather see a wave over or even slightly north of us than squashed in the long ranges.  If cold is nearby there are multiple paths to win.  A wave can end up weaker and south, it could come out in pieces, a lead can cut and a caboose can get us, a lead wave can become a 50/50 for a following wave, we can get a front end CAD thump...

But guidance has become pretty good at picking up on suppression and its rare anymore that some wave thats down in the deep south and suppressed off the SE coast ends up coming up the coast.  Its been a really long time since that happened.  

This post is so good I want to take it out for a nice dinner.

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao

Not psu and a bunch of us across the northern tier of Maryland - fringed with terrible rates. Three inches up this way. 

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, i-95 is the northwest extent of 4-6.   Further west is 2-4.  Northern neck has the most

That makes sense. On any model run of a storm wherever the wall is modeled, it’s over my house. So congrats 95 and east 

.

2 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said:

Not for me just north of Baltimore. It was all snow all the time. Can't see where these numbers are coming from in my area.

That’s because those numbers up this way are flat inaccurate.

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That map does seem high along the M/D line area.

It’s ridiculous .

between me and mappy, we each know how to measure, no effin way 

36 minutes ago, yoda said:

2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiw

Sold for me - after 3 from Monday let’s get some more down. Plus, snow for the ravens / Steelers playoff game would be dope.

57 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Another year where we don't add to the list.

Yep, nice to let this thread drift away early.

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean look...is it the moisture bomb we're looking for?  No...it looks to be a 4-7 thang...and I mean...are we really gonna complain if that's our floor?

Since I got three whole inches today…no, no I would not.

39 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

People were saying the northern folks are due in actuality, give the snow to @North Balti Zen now! 

Approved 

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not sure 10" is a folks for PSU, but ok.   SV maps are shit, so prob could be more

It would be for those of us in northern Maryland to the east of PSU. It’s been a LONG time between drinks. 

Oof, if nothing else comes from the ULL, then didn't even quite get to 3 inches...just 2.8" for the event. A common issue for most of the systems that have disappointed up this way since I moved here in Dec. 2021 was seen again with this one, delayed on-set, and then crap rates w/ icy flakes due to dry air.  Just have not been able to get to that sweet sweet good forcing and lift for years now up this way. Perhaps next time. 

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just under 12” from my parents 6 miles west-southwest of Rehoboth Beach, DE. 
 

They were hammered for several hours this morning. 

Mimosas? Bloody Marys? BOTH?

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Would it annoy anyone else if their neighbor didn't mow their law the last month in the fall such that it would take 6" of snow or more to cover it?  Asking for a friend.  

YES

46 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You said it well, the corridor along 70 east of the Catoctins up through Westminster proper and across to say Hunt Valley and north have been the worst off relative to their averages. Even in my area, the November storm was rain/snow mix 3 miles from me, 1" a couple streets down, but 2.5" up here at 900ft. 

fwiw, you can extend that across 83 running east along the north to Sparks, Monkton, Fallston, Jarrettsville, Bel Air, Havre de Grace and surrounds. That whole area has been in a screw zone for years and years now, storm after storm. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Not enthused at the latest HRRR for north of I-70. 

Just pin that for all future snowstorms.

Just now, mattie g said:

Move south

It’s crossing my mind. Given my curse and that I am moving in March, maybe I will go near you and end snow for all-time in Burke.

Just now, T. August said:

It’s screwed up. I don’t remember what it looks like to have a verified WSW.

Crossing over into “tell me about the war grandpa” territory at this point…

up to a jaw-dropping total of 2.5".   Props to all the "you all always cash in up that way" posters. Six years of being wrong with that thought and counting...

6 minutes ago, T. August said:

At this point 3-4” would be awesome lol

If whatever band this is would setup shop, that is attainable. Fingers crossed. Gorgeous at the moment as it falls.

Skies noticeably darkened and some decent snow started here in Monkton after being very light/flurries for a bit. Nice to see.  A little over two inches. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems I’m only allocated 5 reactions today. So imaginary likes and reactions to everyone!

you know what you did...

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

23 with moderate snow. Just a beautiful morning. 

4+ out there. Eyeing those yellows on radar to the SW. Most of that may slide to my south.

Wow, nice total. That's double what we have to your west. 

11 minutes ago, T. August said:

Measured 1.4” in Havre de Grace. Target was 4” so we will see.

24.1°

Up to 1.8" here, snowing decently now.  Really pretty out.