qg_omega

Yes but other models are even warmer, it’s likely best to just toss the GFS

12z GFS is 27 degrees at 12z Friday. KNYC and KHPN are same temperature. The city is more than the manhattan and im talking about the general area. Euro is 33 at both stations, same time. GFS is a big ice storm for a lot of the area, Euro is a whole lot of nothing. Going to be very little accretion of ice at 32, 31, or 30. Really need temps in 20s for this to become a bigger deal.

Yes, that’s the difference between a nuance event and an ice storm

No it doesn’t

Models are extremely on top of each other, there is like no uncertainty. Literally every model has 6 to 8 for NYC.

GFS

It does?

I think that’s the high bar, decent chance of not a flake and tons of Virga for NYC. Going to have super dry air funneling right down the Hudson Valley. Remember the last storm the Euro had a few inches where only a few flakes actually happened. Never bet against the GFS when its so locked in as it has been for days. Just remarkable consistency.

Enjoy your 3 inches

Euro is just so bad now with east coast storms, really unusable

It’s literally been the most consistent model by far and it’s not even close. All the others moving 100s of miles every 6 hrs.

GFS has been locked in for days, bet against it at your own risk

Amazing how consistent GFS has been, it’s just laying waste to the Euro storm after storm. Everyone knows the risk is a whiff here (besides Pope who argues this cuts to Buffalo)

What?

RGEM is east, GFS leading way on this

Remember, Euro has a severe westward bias in these situations. GFS will lead the way here. Never forget, 60 hr lead time

East trend is undeniable, congrats SNE

DT says biggest risk is a whiff 1. All of the weather models on Monday morning and at midday are now in strong agreement in showing a ruly impressive powerful LOW pressure area developing off the Southeast coast on Friday night. This LOW will track in a NNE or NE direction as it parallels the East coast. Because of the jet stream pattern across North America, additional energy coming down from western Canada into the Plains and the Midwest, there is little chance that this LOW pressure area is going to hug the coast and/ or come inland. 2. This means that the main risk that of what could go wrong is LOW tracking too far to the east and missing everyone on the coast

Yup, we begin the slip east now. 18z RGEM also leaving energy behind and would be east as well

UKMET leading the way, Pope agrees

We whiff

Yes very much so

Epic pattern looks to break down in a week

She’s gone