I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.
I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast. I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point. I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots. However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier. I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer. March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events. Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.