What a change in the monthly outlook from two weeks ago
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 2025 with 1986 as the 9th warmest May on record.
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).