qg_omega

Two storms this winter is about what most expected, a week of winter in Jan with a storm and another ongoing week now with a very similar storm just displaced 100 miles or so south. Upstate NY to NNE have seen nothing for months which is really amazing and that doesn't look to change at all going into March. Just an historically bad winter, last year was MUCH better overall for the Northeast. Most Ski resorts finished normal to above normal, not a chance this winter. The best month for the ski resorts was November...think Jay had 100 before December this year...

100 percent, this is a great forecast None of that matters anymore given the record warmth in the maritime, MJO will drive ridges east and troughs west with the cold on the other side of the globe going forward.

I would say this year very similar to last year here in terms of temps and snow, strong La Niña or strong El Niño, same result

Big El Niño backloaded February so far

/End Winter. 3 months has become two weeks, sad times

was I wrong to push back on it, my reasoning was posted when we had that exchange in Jan

Been on the fake PNA all year, above fits the pattern very well and the above normal to much above March. This is top 5 warmest winter for the CONUS with many in the upper Midwest to NNE at the warmest DJF ever, why would that suddenly flip. I said same to Ray in January and his response was a 500mb composite of past Nino’s

Can’t be upset with 30 inches during a top 5 historic warm winter. We take that all day

She gone

Epic bust upcoming

Why is the Euro wrong? All I see in here is weenies chucking insults. Looks like UKMet which hasn’t changed in days.

Hard to stick with temps above freezing and layers of salt on roads and warm ground

Never believed those strong storms, doesn’t fit the pattern at all. Weak and south makes the most sense given pattern

Kinda shocked how strong the storm is modeled, if that’s true many will flip to snow but no storm this year has been that strong

HPN?

Pounding grass?

Mostly white rain, temps in the mid to upper 30s lol

not seeing that at all, we go to a week of "winter" after this storm with temps normal to above normal before the PAC blasts the country with warm to end winter. Its a repeat of Jan's one week of winter. Who ever threads the needle with this storm on Tuesday will score while the rest will stay at almost no snow. I suspect for NYC they add maybe an inch to their 2.2 inches of snow so far this year.

fits the Jan pattern, thread the needle with main low in western PA moving east. I buy this and sell everything else

Just no cold air this year, absurd warmth to Montreal week after week

Looks like rain to white rain for the coast, maybe an inch or two at the end on the grass. Would be great storm if we had a normal February airmass

Epic pattern past the 20th is gone but it never was. Need to stop looking at 300 hour plus ensembles. Weeklies need to not be run. I never bought into the PNA, it just never made any sense given the pattern we have been in with the strong PAC extensions, Nino, Maritime forcing etc. SSW and PV splits also have driven the cold each time on the other side of the pole, they need to be examined in the context of the pattern and forcing

It’s a another week of Winter before its over and I’m not convinced at all that everyone will score. Same areas that did well in Jan look to repeat

This is mostly rain or white rain for the coast, temps are awful with a spring elevation storm vibe yet again