frontranger8

I'm not sure you understand "cheerleading". It's all discussion. Move along.

I'm such an idiot.

And I believe it's being discussed? Geez...ice narrative nazi here.

You're confusing this with the musings of exceptionally early mins (before 9/5) we hear every year. You think we'll see a min after 9/12?

Given the upcoming pattern, a late minimum (past 9/12) looks very unlikely. Good chance the min is before 9/10.

It was actually prior that I said that. Probably depends on how long the dipole persists. Hard to say, given that it's a pretty destructive pattern, but coming so late in the season. I'd probably say 3rd-5th is most likely at this point for area, at least.

And that pattern was much different than the one we've been in the past few days. Much smaller cyclone, stronger, and not nearly as cold. Looks like a dipole develops next, though, so should see losses pick up again soon. But we're well past peak melting season, so that's the good news (if you're rooting for ice survival rather than annihilation).

Ice loss has slowed the past few days, as expected. No Icepocalypse, nothing like 2012.

That pattern is actually just now setting in.

I think at this point, 4th-6th is most likely for both extent and area. It looks as though we'll remain in a favorable pattern for the ice through the 20th. By then, it starts getting a lot tougher to lose big chunks.

However, this upcoming PV does look to provide anomalously cold temps for much of the basin. Definitely not way above the 20th century average.

I don't think so. It's very broad and actually quite cold at times for this time of year. Similar pattern to what we've seen much of this summer, only stronger and colder. Some areas that have very thin ice and get strong winds will break up more, but overall it looks like more of an ice preservation pattern. Definitely not Icemageddon.

Looks like a pretty cold and large PV coming back here soon.

I don't understand that. It's been proven repeatedly that there is little predictability until late spring at the earliest.

The statement was about strong melt in August with strong -NAO. That hasn't been the case. Still a lot of month, though.

If I was hunting for busts, it would have been this.

Looks like we briefly flirted with 55%. Regardless, any comparison to 2012 has been shut down in August. It's no longer even close. Three weeks ago, this was looking like it would be the second greatest melt year after 2012...not so sure about that now.

Doesn't look like it got higher than low 50s. Obviously still a huge melt from mid June to late July, though.

What a turnaround for Greenland from June/July. Huge dropoff in melt. How does this August compare to previous years?

Agree on all points. Of course, this poll is for extent. But I think TGW was referring to pattern primarily.

4 weeks does not a season make. Let's see how August/September turn out. My guess is we will look back on spring/summer 2015 as more like 2013/14 than 2007-12. And the extent numbers will reflect that.

Maybe "by what year" would have been better wording, instead of "what year".

Bingo. Phillip thinks this year will top 2013. Bold...but not out of the realm of possibility.

1. The last month was easily the worst since 2012. However, if August goes how the Euro weeklies are indicating and is mostly -dipole, 2015 will go down as more similar to 2013/14. Only one month with +dipole. 2. I'm not saying 2007-12 was correlated to the AMO. Just that there is evidence of -AMO being better for the ice.

I'm in the camp that the 2007-12 period was more of an aberration than a "new normal". I don't believe the weather patterns that dominated those years are likely to return to the same extent any time soon, and the weather going forward will be more similar to 2013-15 than 2007-12. The long term trend continues down, but much slower than we saw 2007-12. There is some evidence that returning -AMO could slow down Arctic melt as well. Therefore, I think another year in the next few years could easily surpass 2013. And it will take a return to sustained +dipole patterns to see something below 2012. Eventually, I think the long term trend will win out, and that happens some time in the early 2020s. But then we could easily see a big bounce back again, temporarily.