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vwgrrc

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  1. vwgrrc
    And even more moisture on the latest 18. It's leaning toward the HRRRX solution.
  2. vwgrrc
    Agree. You can see this change now on HRRR. More snow linger around NTX after the front pushed into Central TX. What concerns me is the HRRRX solution has a lot more ice before the transition to snow! But I'm not familiar with that model. No idea why it's so different from HRRR.
  3. vwgrrc
    Is it just me or the models (primarily NAM and HRRRX) have trended north by a little bit?
  4. vwgrrc
    Any idea about the track record of this model at this range? Some say it's a good short range model. But another trusted model - RGEM didn't show nearly as much precip as that model does.
  5. vwgrrc
    Someone just post a 0z HRRRX on Twitter which looks pretty impressive for DFW to E TX. I have no idea how reliable that model is but that solution seems a lot more significant (and icy) than what NWS has discussed. Can anyone verify that?
  6. vwgrrc
    I remember someone said NAM is the only one he would watch for inside 48 hours. Didn't believe that until now... all models converging to NAM in this case, unfortunately.
  7. vwgrrc
    They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground.
  8. vwgrrc
    Guess you're right. 18z GFS and ICON basically confirmed their thought. Things are shifting to south. DFW may see "flurries" at best, again!
  9. vwgrrc
    NWS is very conservative on the amount in their PM discussion. They basically said little to nothing for DFW and north.
  10. vwgrrc
    Same here. 12z NAM showing nothing for DFW. GFS also backed off the moisture a bit. But CMC is still going strong with 2-3" on the east side of the metro. Kinda of hard to believe the difference considering we're only 36 hours away from the event. Wish the European could bring back some confidence.
  11. vwgrrc
    And 18z GFS seems backing off the moisture and moved the system a bit south. Not a very good sign... Meanwhile, the second system is getting more interesting. Lots of ice for NTX and it has been that way for a few runs now.
  12. vwgrrc
    You're right. Both 6z and 12z indicate more moisture that yesterday and NWS suggests in the AM discussion the cold air may move in quicker. It looks like we're finally onto some real winter weather this time. One thing I don't understand is why NAM is still showing virtually nothing for NTX when other models are so consistent with good agreement. I thought NAM is a good model for wintry events like this. But I'm not met... could be wrong.
  13. vwgrrc
    12z CMC, GFS, and ECMWF all hold up well for N TX next Monday night into Tuesday. Not a huge amount of precip after the cold front. But I think it's not very uncommon for models to under estimate the progression of the cold air in this kind of setup, in which case we may end up with more/earlier frozen precip than expected. Correct me if I'm wrong.
  14. vwgrrc
    Nice to see something within 5 days with model agreement, finally. But I won't get too excited at this point since the precipitation amount is still in question and that could make a huge difference. Also, we're now in NAM range and I'm not quite seeing much moisture at this time.
  15. vwgrrc
    Actually, it's now targeting right at your location (E TX). The good news is we're seeing some agreement across a few models and the event is not that far away. Hope this one hold up its shape!
  16. vwgrrc
    Both 0z GFS and CMC are shifting the 1st system of next week north by a good margin (now on the south edge of DFW CWA). Hope it's a trend. Plenty of time for things to change still.
  17. vwgrrc
    He's mainly pointing to the 17-19 period where the warm up you see should come later after that. But honestly I don't think the models can handle that at all at this range. As we speak, 18z looks vastly different. It seems like every run is an outlier!
  18. vwgrrc
    12z NAM backed off big time... Ummmm
  19. vwgrrc
    I see 0z NAM (3km) upped the snow amount quiet a bit for the metro. 3" at some location...
  20. vwgrrc
    Models begin to converge on the next week's Southern Plains storm. But that needs to expend 200 miles south for us to get anything significant.
  21. vwgrrc
    Happy new year, guys! The CPC's new release today showing a colder and wetter 2nd week of this month. I wouldn't be surprised if we score something last next week.
  22. vwgrrc
    The latest AFD is also discussing it. But that looks very light with little impact at this point...
  23. vwgrrc
    GFS seems having trouble handling the system late next week. Also great variation between models/ensembles. Don't remember when was the last time I saw this chao... .
  24. vwgrrc
    You might be right. The latest GFS went crazy for N TX through Jan 3rd. It's just one run at this time, but could be indicating something.
  25. vwgrrc
    This would be similar to the 0z GFS last night, which is gone from GFS today. So...
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