vwgrrc
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Everything posted by vwgrrc
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Was about to come here to say this. If history is any indication, the only thing can be said for sure now is it's going to change. But what's interesting is the precip is trending a bit north on the latest runs. That trend was observed on all models. Edit - Nevermind, 0z Euro pushes it even further south, snowing in Galveston i guess...
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It close to impossible for models to nail anything that far out
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S Denton Ct here transited to snow in the last 30 mins or so. Accumulation seems picking back up. If it continues for the next 6 hr like HRRR and NAM modeled, this is still going to be a pretty big event here.
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If it's just hover above freezing now, I feel it should go below freezing quickly after dark. That should make the rain-snow transition earlier than many short range model says.
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Understanding it's nowcast time, but pretty much all the models I can see is currently increasing the snow total for DFW. Definitely not a bad sign.
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Yea that's interesting. I actually just checked again. Both model says my location should be 34/33F at 14z but currently it's 30/31. I think is really comes down to how much it could warm up in the afternoon. That could swing the snow total by a lot.
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Good call here. Both 12z NAM and HRRR came in notably warmer than yesterday. DFW is basically a cold rain until later this evening if that holds true. a bit disappointing but at least there's still plenty of snow overnight, hopefully!
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Does this mean more sleet/FZR for DFW or even just rain? Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk
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SW Denton Ct here -1C now. About 1-2C cooler than most short range models said. Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk
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18z NAM also stepping up notablely!
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0z Canadian/RDPS and Euro/EPS both came in looking relatively good. Slightly less crazy than previous run but at least starting to show some signs of consistency with GFS along with HRRR. I would remain cautiously optimistic about snow for the 4 counties in the metroplex.
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0z GFS just came in with a lot more snow for DFW than 12z run. More or less back to how it looks yesterday. Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk
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True. But i think it's notable that most models are showing colder and wetter than earlier today including NAM itself. HRRR is particularly aggressive with the shift.
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0z HRRR in range now. It seems onboard with more sleet than snow at this a point! Update: actually... just refreshed HRRR again. More snow on the back end. So basically both in pretty impressive amount looks like.
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Yes. 48H out now. A lot colder than 12z. Maybe just back to how it looks at 6z. 18z NAM says oh we're so back
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12z CMC/RDPS is still very bullish on snow. GEFS is also more or less on board but less aggressive. Quite wild situation tbh. And of course, Euro coming in and is still dumping a lot of snow for Dallas. Feel bad for folks at NWS on this one
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Interesting that NWS is normally very conservative on issuing a Watch especially for DFW. They won't just take a few model runs and say it's gonna be a winter storm. What convinced them or is this gonna be a big bust fot them as well?
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12z NAM came in basically no snow at all for DFW! Quite a swing at close range to be honest
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Same for NAM.
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0z RDPS (Canadian) seems more or less onboard with NAM just a little north placing DFW around the transition zone of FZR. Quite wild to watch. If GFS and Euro join at 0z, this can be easily a historical event. Edit - GFS coming in significantly warmer than earlier today. Seems like a trend from 18z. Now it almost paints a cold rain event for DFW. I don't remember if I've seen such a large divergence between NAM and GFS at this close range. Curious what's the reason behind it
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0z NAM is printing a foot of snow for Dallas... can't even imagine that. Waiting for others models to confirm that. The previous GFS run was a bit drier.
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Yea. 18z GFS seems confirming that drier+warmer trend actually. ICON isn't the best but that NAM run looks really outlandish. This still has a chance to become a cold rain even for NTX looks like.
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18z NAM seems wonky. It shows a foot of snow for half of the state... ICON actually came in drier
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Interestingly tho i don't think it's common to see NAM being so strong for a FZRN event in NTX while all other models keep that in OK, especially given it's now only 48 hr out. It normally the opposite! Curious to see how AFD gonna interpret the divergence.
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Some freezing rain seems likely for Monday AM in DFW metro. Still could change a lot at this point.
