vwgrrc

Interestingly tho i don't think it's common to see NAM being so strong for a FZRN event in NTX while all other models keep that in OK, especially given it's now only 48 hr out. It normally the opposite! Curious to see how AFD gonna interpret the divergence.

Some freezing rain seems likely for Monday AM in DFW metro. Still could change a lot at this point.

Speaking of which, I don't think I ever seen such a huge divergence between GFS and CMC like this for the next Monday. I literally laughed out loud

Well. 12z Euro is not showing any drier and it's actually shifting the system a bit north toward Dallas. That said, there's still time for things like this to change drastically.

12Z Euro seems shifting the battleground a bit north which can be a problem for Dfw if other model to follow. But i think all of them are trending a bit drier in the last 3 runs.

Canadian is basically calling a somewhat big event for Dallas and it's showing a trend from yesterday. Definitely worth watching if Euro will join and what Gfs says next run. Edit - Euro joined the chat as well. Timing is slightly later than the other two. Not a terrible idea to start preparing early.

I might said that too soon. Both 12z Gfs and Cmc are showing some icing for DFW. Cmc is actually quite strong on that. I think it's a bit concerning at this range to see some model convergence especially if they trend.

But the both 12z and 18z suit came in pretty dry for Dallas is it not? It's cold for sure but dry.

Pretty much full blast sun out in Collin Ct now

Not good when you have a W shift to cover 6M+ like this ...

True. But I wonder why there seems a lot of melting underway. I see the streets are clearing up and nothing really stick on trees or power lines here, which is really good. Maybe the actual accumulation could be less than expected

When you see SPC mesoscale discussion while it's 26 outside... I hope my power holds tonight.

Denton CT falling pretty hard consistent with what radar shows.

Starting to feel there's a chance the outcome could be even worst than forecasted today. Most of the short range models tonight shows little to nothing for the state as of midnight. But in reality, West TX is already seeing FR or sleet at this point. Probably gonna be a real mess in DFW tomorrow.

I'm actually a bit shocked they issued the warning at this point given the latest HRRR isn't that aggressive for tomorrow and the amount is *only* up to 0.25. IMO December 2013 was much worse.