NEOH

What a way to kick off January with a +18 temp departure. At least the western basin ice has probably melted . AVERAGE MONTHLY: 48.6 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.55 DPTR FM NORMAL: 18.4 DPTR FM NORMAL: 1.11 HIGHEST: 62 ON 3 GRTST 24HR 0.94 ON 3- 4 LOWEST: 37 ON 4, 1

Looks like the Western basin is frozen from the Islands on west. The upcoming warmth and rain should melt most of it.

Merry Christmas! Perfect morning with snow falling.

Buffalo had 8.8" YTD last year on 12/24... what a difference a year makes (and a favorable wind direction for lake effect).

That sucks. Somehow we never lost power here which was nice. Just hours and hours of arctic dust and high winds. Browns game should be interesting today.

Its pretty brutal out there. Left my house at 6am and could barely see driving. Guesstimating 3"+ of snow so far. CLE is calling for 2-4" more but not sure we will see that. You'll probably see the higher amount along the lakeshore.

Down to 20 degrees already with heavy snow. Winds are ripping as well.

They must be in the Edgewater community. Hopefully they have a strong/large breakwall.

Erie freezes the quickest. There will likely be a quick freeze on the western basin this weekend.

I really don't know what to expect snowfall wise. Seems the models have bumped upwards. CLE has 6-8" throughout Geauga county. Some of the clown maps are much higher. You should do well up by the lakeshore. .. the winds will certainly be ripping. Just hoping not to lose power out this way.

Euro attempts to throw us a bone. A low east of Lake Ontario is usually a good spot. But everything is elongated from west to east which keeps the winds southwesterly on the backside. Probably very little chance of the orientation changing.

Really have no idea what to expect from this storm. A couple of inches of snow with extremely windy conditions isn't all that interesting. Hoping for a more eastward trajectory as the storm exits to maintain a flow off of the lake for as long as possible before winds turn southwesterly.

I'm in the Northeast Ohio snowbelt. It has been a "lake plain" year from Ohio through WNY with the west/southwest wind direction.

What a season in your area. Congrats. We're on the sidelines again for this event.

Ha. Who knows at this point. What a tough storm to forecast. Sounds like the models will have full sampling later today. Hopefully the eastern trends continue. I think the trajectory of the low as it passes by will have a big impact on lake enhancement snowfall behind the low.

Hey, I was hoping for better news from you ! What a LES season for WNY... really couldn't draw it up and better for that area this year. Its going to be a little frustrating when we will finally get a favorable set-up and a NW wind direction when the lake has ice.

The CMC was a small step in the right direction. A tightly wound low due North would not be good. We need the low to move more easterly to bring the winds around to a more favorable direction.

The solution he was forecasting is likely not even close to being correct... That would be the 18z GFS series, which develops a surface low pressure over the Carolinas and takes the impulse straight north into the QC Eastern Townships, then into the Laurentian Shield. As you can tell by the packed isobar configuration on all of the mapped depictions, high winds and piercing chill factors are a given in association with this storm. The freezing air at one point may reach central Mexico. But rain and snow boundaries, and intensities, are not as easy to outline. Because of the lack of surety in the trajectory, even parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England could see substantial snow. Accumulations of snowfall, along with icing, could reach farther south due to the broad upper low and mesoscale impulses rotating around the core. The 954MB pressure forecast on Saturday morning in QC is probably correct; this system has the word "bombogenesis" written all over it!

Long shot unfortunately. If today's 12z runs stay well west we are likely done.

Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east... There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track.

Will there be full sampling today? Pretty much worst case scenario currently on the models. -- low cuts well west, winds behind the storm stay WSW'erly so any lake effect/enhanced snow would be along the immediate lakeshore up to WNY. Fits seasonal trends I guess .

Typical model windshield wiper effect this far out. Didn't the 00z GFS you posted have 15"+ across Northern Ohio ? We always ride a fine line in OH with storms so this is no different. The lake enhanced snow on the backside should be great regardless.

Well the worries of a late phase are gone . Just a WAG but a track from PIT to ROC wouldn’t surprise me… less amped than was is currently shown.

Definitely a frustrating start with these WSW'erly lake effect set-ups. Just a couple of cold snaps and there will be ice on the lake . At the very least the lake effect set-up looks good next week.

Euro has been remarkably consistent with next weeks storm threat. GFS is all over the map, the CMC is fairly close to the Euro. Only 6 more days of model watching