NEOH
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Everything posted by NEOH
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Its down to a crisp 48 degrees out there. Brrrr. The warm temps and winds had to have wiped away an ice on the lake. Next weeks looks interesting... but could be a back-breaker as well. Wouldn't be a good set-up with a low NW of us providing a WSW fetch... only to shift NW'erly as riding pushes in. Still a long ways out so hopefully it will look a little more favorable in the coming days. Any bets on under/over snowfall at CLE? My guess is that CLE finishes around 25" give or take.
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We can certainly make up a lot of ground quickly with a multi-day LES event. What concerns me is that the lake is hovering just around freezing. One decent cold shot and there will be a lot of ice cover. We already saw that with the last event. Synoptic snows seem really hard to come by lately. It has been a downer of a winter and I'm about ready to close the books on it.
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Finally a NW wind... but it is transient unfortunately. The snow is fairly light around here even under the heavier returns. Hopefully we'll cash in on a good LES event before winter winds down. The one positive thing about the upcoming rain and warmth is that lake erie won't build any more ice cover. You probably don't have the concern as much off of Huron.
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That would be awful. I'm around 26" for the season so far. You folks just north probably have twice as much. Picked up an inch last night.
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Doubtful we'll come anywhere near 60" out this way... where around 100" is normal. And you are right... we really haven't been in the game for any appreciable storms. Looks like 1" to possibly 3" tonight. Given the way this winter has gone I'll take the under. With February around the corner I'm starting to look forward to Spring.
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Had a nice view of the lake flying out of CLE yesterday. The NE winds pushed a lot of the ice to the shoreline. It must have been very thin. There was pretty much open water all the way to the islands.
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Honestly, I've given up on synoptic snow. This area just isn't a great location for large storms. Give me a juiced clipper with les behind it any day. It really was amazing to see how much snow fell in such a short distance from here. What was your total? The flour like snow has settled quite a bit here.
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Welcome to the northern ohio crew. LES is fickle around here so we can all share in the misery together at some point. It's has been a rough winter if you need a NW wind direction. Luckily for you lake huron is still wide open. Despite record breaking warmth in December a good chunk of the fetch we need is frozen over. Ouch!
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You have a ton of snow in Chesterland. As soon I hit Farmount heading north on 306 there was a sharp increase in snow depth. Great event for your location. What a crazy gradient.
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Amazing to think ice cover played a role considering how warm the lake was just weeks ago. Checked out the visible satellite and the western basin into the southern central is ice covered. It definitely limited moisture.
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Nice! I'll be in Chesterland later today. Us folks just 5 miles or so south don't even have half of that.
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Picked up an inch + last night. No surprise as the heaviest snows stayed north once again. For some reason winds had a hard time turning NW'erly. Troughs seem to get hung up on the south lake shore. Looking upstream at the other lakes there was a well defined NW flow but just not this far south. Snowing pretty good out there now. Perhaps a couple inches down this way today if the snow can hang on.
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Not sure the trough will make it very far south tonight. Seems to be stuck to the north. Hope I'm wrong of course but got to follow trends this season. Another great event just north. I will not doubt the NMM the rest of the season. It had southern lake county as the jackpot and has been spot,on.
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Think we might see the lake effect gather some strength as the afternoon goes on. Looks like additional moisture is moving in the from the northwest. Can also see the trough well to the north moving south.
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Talked with someone in Willougby who indicated 10" or so. Aren't the winds supposed to turn more NW'erly later tonight? Thought a trough was going to push through.
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That must have been the case. Everything looked great with the wind direction... but not with the band placement. I'm guessing the western basin is mostly ice covered at this point.
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Bands are forming over the lake... Just as the meso models showed. Nice sign. They should sink further south tonight before lifting northeast tomorrow.
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Same here. Nice start. Now we see what happens with the les. The biggest wild card is wind direction but the dry Arctic air is also a concern. Still looks like north of here does the best but we may get a decent snowfall.
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Thanks for posting the 12z runs. For some reason tropicaltidbits doesn't update. Looking at the wind direction the ARW would seem more realistic. Not just because it shows more snow for this area. Winds come around from 280-290 for a good amount of time. The NMM would imply a due west flow for a much longer period of time.
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Snow is pounding out there right now. 322 to route 6 would be a great place to be for this event. We'll have to suffer with the scraps down this way
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Everything seems to be coming together for a big les event. Sure wish winds would come around a little more nw'erly for those of us on the southern edge. Best guess is that the same areas that just got hit are the jackpot again.
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Great info OHWeather. Check out the GFS and NAM for Monday. Seems like these kind of fit the parameters you mentioned.
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Hopefully the Sunday/Monday time frame delivers for LES. Models are pretty consistent in showing winds in the 280-290 range for a fairly long period. Always subject to change but nice to see. This is basically the ideal flow for a firehose band. Dry air is a concern but this flow also brings moisture from Lake Michigan. For IMBYpurposes, I'd like to see a sustained 290 flow.
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You made a great forecast. Nice job. CLE played catch-up throughout the entire event. Hopefully we'll see a more NW'erly wind direction next week. However, I wouldn't be surprised if next week doesn't look the same as this past. Seems like we can't get winds to turn more than 290 or so.
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Congrats on the snow. Are you north of 322? Looks like a decent set-up early next week.
