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NEOH

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Everything posted by NEOH

  1. Best storm of the Summer so far. The winds on the backside were definitely the strongest. Lots of limbs down IMBY. Looks like Chesterland, Munson and Newbury took the worst of it locally. Lakeshore areas near Bratenahl were hard hit.
  2. This image from yesterday's storms has been a consistent representation of where the heaviest rain has been the past week. I'm just a few miles south. Have to imagine you've had quite a bit of rain the past week. I've had 2" IMBY.
  3. Yep. Picked up just .25" of rain here. Everything has been going around this area.
  4. The trend is definitely not our friend. Hoping for a few showers/storms late this afternoon. We've had a just enough rain locally to keep the grass green but we need a good soaker.
  5. .15” of rain yesterday. Lake/Ashtabula cashed in again. Another bust for severe storms.
  6. CLE seems fairly bullish for tomorrow. Most of the area is dry and could use the rain. We'll see what happens. The Saturday forecast continues to be a very active weather day across the region with appreciable threats with both severe weather and flash flooding. A strong southwest to northeast oriented 850 mb low level jet with southwest flow parallel to a surface cold front moving southeast will be the main culprits for both threats. For the severe weather threat, the main 850 mb jet will be departing to the northeast by the late afternoon and early evening hours. The right entrance region will be over the eastern half of the forecast area during this time and could offer great support for severe storm development in this region. The wind shear values across the area on Saturday afternoon are rather impressive for late June with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50 to 55 kt and 0-3 km SRH over 200 m2/s2 in the entrance region of this low level jet. Therefore, storms have a great chance to become organized for all severe weather hazards, especially if some supercell thunderstorms can form. A 5% tornado probability has been introduced in the Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook, as that threat is beginning to look more intriguing with some convective model output showing the sig tor parameter over 1 in the eastern portion of the forecast area. However, there is one big concern for the entire severe weather setup - instability. Showers and storms are likely to be ongoing across the region on Saturday morning and with the low level jet overhead offering support, these will likely persist through the day. Any break in shower and storm activity and especially any breaks in the clouds could spell trouble as there will be opportunity for larger amounts of surface based instability to form in the region. Surface dew points will be trending upward during the day on Saturday into the 70s with the efficient moisture advecting into the region, so it won`t take much warming to get appreciable CAPE. However, instability is the limiting factor for the severe threat and why a Day 2 Slight Risk for severe weather is appropriate at this time. The hail threat on Saturday will also be limited to just supercell development at this time. Wet bulb zero values are at 13k ft and higher and will allow for melting hail (and flooding, more next!) vs. observed severe hail. The Slight Risk now incorporates almost the entire forecast area as there is enough shear to be concerned everywhere. However, the eastern counties have the greatest concern at this time with the highest shear and best chance at getting a late morning break in rain and could be a candidate for future upgrades, depending on convective trends tonight into Saturday.
  7. The central lakeshore area hasn't done well with rain/storms lately. Ashtabula up toward Erie has been the spot to be for storms. Almost every model had storms over this area yesterday which didn't happen. Only had .32" of precip , while the models had a good 1" +.
  8. There should be a good chance for storms today out your way... and hopefully more widespread chances this weekend.
  9. Picked up 1" of much needed rain yesterday from the storms. Hopefully more to come. Yards were just starting to brown out locally.
  10. That seems very late for Southern Ohio (even in 1904). We are about 2 weeks ahead of schedule here in Northeast Ohio. The Black Locust are the latest to leaf out this year. There are very few, if any, Ash trees remaining. Total devastation from the ash borer.
  11. Definitely a big change from this morning. Perfectly clear skies right now. Maybe some high clouds but a great view.
  12. Clear skies in CLE. Satellite looks great. Maybe some high clouds later. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-LakeErie-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  13. C'mon, early April in Northeast Ohio is always so nice . Really hoping we can catch a break with clear skies... but I would put that in the possible but not probable category.
  14. 6.1" total IMBY. Should melt quickly today with full sun and temps in the 40's.
  15. 3” of snow overnight. Looks like mid winter out there. Was really hoping we we were done with this.
  16. Brutal change in the weather. Picked up close to 2" from the lake effect band this morning. Look forward to the return of warm temps this weekend.
  17. Great day yesterday. This area was under some of the heavier squalls. 6” total imby.
  18. 290 flow would be ideal. Seems like a fairly short window as winds turn more WSW'erly late afternoon tomorrow.
  19. Yep. Definitely a poor Winter all around which was somewhat expected given the strong El Nino. That said, I don't think many expected the Winter to be this bad in terms of snowfall (at least locally). We've strung together a few bad Winters in Northern Ohio whereas other areas in the Midwest have not.
  20. A few snow flurries around this afternoon. The last time it snowed was 1/28. Oof.
  21. Low pressure driving into W VA is usually a great track for snow in Ohio. If the current track holds it would be shocking not see a heavy snow band somewhere from central Ohio on north. Not sure why precip to the NW of the low seems so limited on the models.
  22. I like your optimism... hopefully it falls over the next couple of weeks then we can move on to a mild Spring.
  23. Birds are chirping and wildlife has been very active... really feels like early Spring. I'm almost out of Winter mode but it would be nice to get one large storm before closing the books on the season.
  24. 2/13 storm offering a glimmer of hope for synoptic snowfall across Ohio. Big jump NW on the GFS and CMS 12z model runs. Still a long way out but at least something to track.
  25. CLE's snowfall is currently at 16.5" for the season (an inch below last year), with a departure of -18.7". Barring a miracle, this will be another below average snowfall season. The last time CLE hit average snowfall was the Winter of 2014-2015 with 67". That is a rough stretch. I've been close to normal a few of the seasons in between thanks to lake effect. But those outside of the snowbelt have been in an exceptionally long snow drought.
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