CLE seems fairly bullish for tomorrow. Most of the area is dry and could use the rain. We'll see what happens.
The Saturday forecast continues to be a very active weather day across the region with appreciable threats with both severe
weather and flash flooding. A strong southwest to northeast oriented 850 mb low level jet with southwest flow parallel to a
surface cold front moving southeast will be the main culprits for both threats. For the severe weather threat, the main 850 mb
jet will be departing to the northeast by the late afternoon and early evening hours. The right entrance region will be over the
eastern half of the forecast area during this time and could offer great support for severe storm development in this region.
The wind shear values across the area on Saturday afternoon are rather impressive for late June with 0-6 km bulk shear values of
50 to 55 kt and 0-3 km SRH over 200 m2/s2 in the entrance region of this low level jet. Therefore, storms have a great
chance to become organized for all severe weather hazards, especially if some supercell thunderstorms can form. A 5%
tornado probability has been introduced in the Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook, as that threat is beginning to look more
intriguing with some convective model output showing the sig tor parameter over 1 in the eastern portion of the forecast area.
However, there is one big concern for the entire severe weather setup - instability. Showers and storms are likely to be ongoing
across the region on Saturday morning and with the low level jet overhead offering support, these will likely persist
through the day. Any break in shower and storm activity and especially any breaks in the clouds could spell trouble as there
will be opportunity for larger amounts of surface based instability to form in the region. Surface dew points will be
trending upward during the day on Saturday into the 70s with the efficient moisture advecting into the region, so it won`t take
much warming to get appreciable CAPE. However, instability is the limiting factor for the severe threat and why a Day 2 Slight
Risk for severe weather is appropriate at this time. The hail threat on Saturday will also be limited to just supercell
development at this time. Wet bulb zero values are at 13k ft and higher and will allow for melting hail (and flooding, more
next!) vs. observed severe hail. The Slight Risk now incorporates almost the entire forecast area as there is enough
shear to be concerned everywhere. However, the eastern counties have the greatest concern at this time with the highest shear
and best chance at getting a late morning break in rain and could be a candidate for future upgrades, depending on
convective trends tonight into Saturday.