NEOH

I was surprised to see CLE put out a snow map this early, and given the different model solutions. CLE leaned heavily on the euro for their forecast... apparently because it handles storms coming out the southwest the best. I had thought the Euro had a bias of holding energy back in the southwest.

Just looked at the overnight model runs. Looks like they held. Euro seems to be on its own with the position further south, although the low it is elongated to the north. Doesn't make a lot of difference in terms of sensible weather though. Everything should be sampled today so we'll see what/if any major changes take place. An earlier phase would be ideal for this area.

Looking forward to tomorrow’s model runs. Hopefully there will be some resolution at that point. Despite differences in the low track seems like we are in line for a nice storm. Some better than other obviously. Interesting that the euro is the most southern solution at this point. We’ll see who caves tomorrow.

Good read and analysis on the storm and potential outcomes - http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011619b.htm I would definitely give it until tomorrow before leaning in any one direction.

Good to hear. Per ORH in the NE sub, a SE trend is typical in this time frame until 48 hours out when the "latent heat release" causes a shift back to the NW.

Really hard to go against the euro given its reliability. Feel much better having the euro showing a favorable solution given this time frame it is in its wheelhouse. Again, come Thursday we'll have a much better picture so I'm not overly concerned about 40 mile GFS north/south bumps every 6 hour cycle.

Everything is still on track. Any small changes in track are noise at this point... and most important to those riding the edge. Not saying things couldn't change but continuity is really good right now.

Yep. Another good day of model runs. Details are still TBD but its fair to say that we have some buffer to the south and north at this point, with good model consensus. Can't ask for more than that 4 days out. We'll have a pretty clear picture come Thursday. Unless something dramatically changes no need to sweat each model run.

Thanks for dropping in with your thoughts. Yeah, too amped and the mix line would get close. Feeling pretty good about it at this point but its still a long ways out.

Thanks for the info. Makes sense.

Thanks for the post. Great to have a met in the area. Going to be a long week of model watching. Would the weaker clipper allow for more amplification of the weekend storm?

Yep. All snow.

Another incredible Euro run last night. Pretty remarkable agreement in the models at this point.

It has been quite some time since there has been a signal like this for a significant storm in this area. We have some room on the north and south side as is stands right now. Being 5 or so days out its nice to have the Euro looking good. There would definitely be lake enhancement on the backside as winds come around from the Northeast to the North... especially with ample moisture and cold 850 temps. Pretty much the ideal set-up for Northern Ohio. The Thursday system would be a nice appetizer leading up to the weekend as well. The only concern I have at this point is this becoming more suppressed but we have some wiggle room. Going to be a long week of model watching but the consistency is great to see.

Woke up for an early morning flight and was surprised how much snow fell. Wasn't expecting more than a dusting. Last nights Euro was great for Ohio.

This might be one of the better clown maps I've seen from the 12z GFS.

Nice storm for next weekend out in fantasy range... a good signal on the models for something tracking through the lower OV. Hope we can cash in on one or two decent synoptic storms this winter.

That band in Cuyahoga must be intense. We've had a few bursts here under lighter returns and it was a whiteout.

Nice upstream connections with bands over the secondary snowbelt and far west side. Didn't pick up much last night... around an inch or so.

Wind shift is pushing south across the lake. We should transition from the banded structure to the "green blob" over the higher terrain. The band earlier was very intense. We'll see what tonight brings.

Its supposed to pick-up later this afternoon and tonight. Definitely not as much snow here but its coming down now. Going to be tough to measure with the strong winds.

What a change from yesterday morning! Nice to have snow on the ground again. Yep, everything looks good at this point. Would be nice to get an upstream connection in the area. Winds stay at 290 for awhile which is a decent fetch. Once winds go NW'erly we'll probably just have that "green blob" appearance over the higher terrain instead of banding. Long duration light to mod event.

What a day of weather... currently under a severe t'storm warning and winter weather advisory. CLE calling for 5-9"... which seems a bit bullish. But BUF increased the totals for their area as well. With the higher winds speeds upslope locals such as ours can do well. A rare event where areas south of 322 will do better. edit: They don't normally send spotter emails before. It just hasn't snowed significantly for so long they probably assumed no one was paying attention to the weather.

Just received an automated email from CLE NWS - Dear Snow Spotters, Happy New Year! Some of you may have had the pleasure of waking up to 50 degrees and thunderstorms this morning with some small hail and a couple rumbles of thunder. We may even get another round of thunderstorms this evening ahead of a cold front! Then, everything changes over to snow and we will get our first lake effect snow outbreak of the season as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. That crazy Ohio and Pennsylvania weather... This email just serves as a notice to dig out those snow boards out and get them ready for what has already been an interesting week of weather. I think everyone will see some snow tonight and into tomorrow morning. (Perhaps only a half an inch at best for you NW Ohio folks, sorry!) Then, all eyes turn to the snow belt of NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania for what could be 2 days full of snow.

Yep. The Chautauqua ridge looks to be ground zero. An upstream connection would certainly help around here. Wrf's are much better than the NAM.