NEOH

The one thing I'm concerned about are the strong winds limiting residence time and preventing band organization. Not sure how NW'erly the winds are forecast to come around but anywhere from 285 - 300 would be ideal for maximizing fetch.

Nice to finally see a snow map based on a WNW wind direction.

I remember Nov '96 very well. That event was earlier in the season and Chardon had 70+" of snow. There was a ton of thunder snow, and the snow was wet/heavy so there was a lot of tree damage. Also, the snow hit a much broader area than this event. This event was one of the more impressive but Nov '96 was unique.

Thought I would wake up to more snow this morning. Only an inch or so. Interesting that the snow weakened so much as the fetch was still long over the lake. We'll see what happens today but expectations are low.

The snow band looks great over the lake. Seems to be moving south a bit. There are going to some huge totals in lake county today. Not sure it will make it this far south.

Wheatcent must be buried by now. Crazy how much snow parts of Lake and Ashtabula counties have had. Bummed to miss out on the good stuff this far south but we'll have shot tomorrow as winds come around to the WNW.

Check out the hrrr. Targets the 322 corridor. It’s on its own compared to other models and shows less troughing over the lake. Hopefully a trend.

Woke to a coating of snow. Figured it would stay all rain but it changed over at some point. Surprised CLE issued a lake effect snow warning in this area for 6-14” between now and Saturday. Maybe they just have to include the entire county. The heavy snow should be well north of here.

Not much change with the 12z runs today. Amazing how they have locked in to a wind direction for days now. Just a 10 degree difference would be a game changer. Still looks good Sunday night through Tuesday but definitely in a weaker state.

The lake effect set-up is coming into better focus. Looks like a Rt. 6 North special to start before transitioning to the primary snowbelt Sunday night into Tuesday. Would really like to see the flow come around to 280 or 290, but there appears to be troughing over the lake keeping the fetch more westerly. Still a few days away so things may change.

Looking really good for an extended LES event. The models do show a trough over the lake which would likely keep winds more westerly and the heaviest snow north of here. Hoping that changes as we get closer. A solid WNW event is possible.

Certainly was an unusual event and snowfall distribution. Hopefully we'll get more NW flow LES events this season.

The heavy band never made it this far southeast. Everything was covered but nothing like North of here. A fried near Mulberry and Caves road had 5 inches. Overall the models did pretty well with showing the heaviest snow closer to the lake near metro CLE and the immediate east side.

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December. This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50- 50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8 to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week, with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS.

We've had such a nice Fall but I'm ready to move on to snow season. This will be an interesting storm to track. Good thing the leaves are down should the heavy/wet snow solution happen.

This would make for an interesting Browns/Steelers Thursday night game in CLE.

It has been an amazing stretch. Leaves seem to be past peak at this point. Lots of leaves coming down with the breeze today. I thought the dry Summer might mute colors but they are vibrant.

Hopefully we can get a similar set-up when its cold enough for snow. Perfect wind direction. Looking forward to the mild temps again later this week.

Lake effect season is here. Rainy and cold couple of days upcoming. Already close to 1.5" since the weekend.

Finished September with 3.26" of precip. Quite a turnaround from the dry weather earlier in the month.

What an incredible stretch of weather we've had. Picked up over an 1" of rain back on the 9/7, but not a drop since. Just sunny skies and comfortable temps. Lots of red and purple showing up in the maples already.

Turned out to be a stormy and wet weekend. Picked up 2.10" of rain. Nice to have everything green again.

Nice soaker last night. Picked up just over 2". Much needed.

Sorry to hear that. I wonder if it was a large downburst. Many roads were still closed last night. I was detoured to Auburn Rd. and Cedar yesterday... that area was particularly hard hit. I took Cedar Rd. west to Rockhaven and it looked like a war zone.