NEOH

Missed most of the storms yesterday afternoon. Only a brief downpour imby. It has been dry for weeks it seems... the ground is as dry as it has been in quite some time. Looks like a decent chance of storms over the next few days at least... then potential tropical remnants.

Exactly... you hear so much about preventing the spread, but nothing about lifestyle changes you can make to improve your health and reduce your risk. America is just told to make sure you wear a mask to McDonalds or xyz fast food place. I think 300k or so people die in the US each year from obesity, and roughly 40% of the population are obese.

Emergency room doc I know said that remdesivir has been very helpful. Chances of dying down greatly with its use. He also said the most common chronic condition of those that become seriously ill is obesity... much more than hypertension. It would be interesting to know if they are tracking which chronic conditions the patients have that die. The sad part is that most people have controllable chronic conditions such as obesity, but have ignored the warnings for years... then COVID comes along.

Its just crazy. I've have several friends who are Cleveland Clinic doctors that indicated testing is almost useless. According to them, you can test positive due to having past common colds. DeWine even said his only symptom was a headache -- which appears to actually be quite common in those with COVID so who knows. The docs I know said that essentially everyone will be exposed to this... there is just no getting around it regardless of mask wearing. And the shocking part is that they don't seem overly concerned about it.

Hindsight is always 20/20. How are you so certain a 6 week shutdown would have stopped this? Are you a MD? Just curious as I haven't seen anyone speak about COVID with such certainty.

The AAP guidance is based on what pediatricians and infectious disease specialists know about COVID-19 and kids. Evidence so far suggests that children and adolescents are less likely to have symptoms or severe disease from infection. They also appear less likely to become infected or spread the virus.

Pediatricians are recommending that kids go back to school - https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/29/884638999/u-s-pediatricians-call-for-in-person-school-this-fall If the risk was great I doubt they would make that recommendation.

I'm a business owner as well... but on the professional services side so I don't have much experience with the PPP loans. But my understanding is that you have to maintain the same amount of employees to receive the money, not the same employees. If someone chooses not to go back to work after being offered their job back they doomed themselves. The industries most affected are obviously lower paying such as hospitality, restaurants etc. I saw your comment about people being underpaid as well. That's partly true.... especially for large corporations. It costs a tremendous amount of money to operate a small to mid size business which most employees don't have visibility to. My philosophy is if you want to make more money work harder... it always pays off.

Many employers have contacted people asking them to come back but they decline since they are making more on unemployment than actually working. Despite high unemployment, there are a lot of job openings within certain industries. The jobs are slowly being filled with new hires, and those choosing to remain on unemployment will likely remain there as they won't have a job to go back to.

We really have had ideal weather this Summer. Just enough rain to keep the grass green and plants watered. Wouldn't mind more thunderstorm activity though.

Nice soaker at CLE today - looks like almost 3" in a short amount of time. It has been fairly dry imby this Summer but no complaints after the wet start.

Snowed again this morning but it didn't accumulate much... just a light covering. What a truly awful Spring. May 11th and still waiting for leaf out.

Yeah, I was a little shocked when I woke up this morning... had no idea snow was in the forecast. Where was this during Winter! Looked at the radar loop this morning and it didn't last long so the rates must have been high.

It has been snowing on and off in Chagrin. Pretty remarkable considering how nice the weather was yesterday.

Not certain but I believe it was in Wadsworth. There were a couple pictures of it posted on the NWS CLE facebook page.

That was a wild storm last night. Amazing lightning. The winds toppled a few large trees as well. Better than most storms we've had over the past couple of Summers.

I believe the high death rate in asian males was attributed to the very high percentage of the male asian population who smoke cigarettes and had underlying respiratory issues.

I know... he likes the schoolgirl drama but its probably fair to say this topic isn't a joke. But I get it... this is an internet forum so carry on.

You seem to be the only one "in the know". Let us know prior to it starting please.

Instead of insulting others... why don't you add some value and post your thoughts.

Care to elaborate on what's funny?

Passing along a summary of Goldman Sachs investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in... The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

Looks like we can probably put the shovels away for the season. What an absolute torch it has been at CLE... December - +2.5 January - +8.2 February - +2.5 March (as of 3/10) - + 8.7 CLE's snowfall for the season is at 30.1" (-26.9" departure).

The event definitely shut down earlier than anticipated. I thought it was going to heavier Friday night. We managed to hit double digits down south of you. I thought Chesterland did well but apparently I was mistaken. Mayfield and 306 almost always has more than South Russell.

The lake effect fluff we had over the weekend will be long gone by the end of the week unfortunately. Looks like a chance of snow Friday/Saturday but nothing significant. Have a good trip.