NEOH

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December. This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50- 50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8 to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week, with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS.

We've had such a nice Fall but I'm ready to move on to snow season. This will be an interesting storm to track. Good thing the leaves are down should the heavy/wet snow solution happen.

This would make for an interesting Browns/Steelers Thursday night game in CLE.

It has been an amazing stretch. Leaves seem to be past peak at this point. Lots of leaves coming down with the breeze today. I thought the dry Summer might mute colors but they are vibrant.

Hopefully we can get a similar set-up when its cold enough for snow. Perfect wind direction. Looking forward to the mild temps again later this week.

Lake effect season is here. Rainy and cold couple of days upcoming. Already close to 1.5" since the weekend.

Finished September with 3.26" of precip. Quite a turnaround from the dry weather earlier in the month.

What an incredible stretch of weather we've had. Picked up over an 1" of rain back on the 9/7, but not a drop since. Just sunny skies and comfortable temps. Lots of red and purple showing up in the maples already.

Turned out to be a stormy and wet weekend. Picked up 2.10" of rain. Nice to have everything green again.

Nice soaker last night. Picked up just over 2". Much needed.

Sorry to hear that. I wonder if it was a large downburst. Many roads were still closed last night. I was detoured to Auburn Rd. and Cedar yesterday... that area was particularly hard hit. I took Cedar Rd. west to Rockhaven and it looked like a war zone.

Best storm of the Summer so far. The winds on the backside were definitely the strongest. Lots of limbs down IMBY. Looks like Chesterland, Munson and Newbury took the worst of it locally. Lakeshore areas near Bratenahl were hard hit.

This image from yesterday's storms has been a consistent representation of where the heaviest rain has been the past week. I'm just a few miles south. Have to imagine you've had quite a bit of rain the past week. I've had 2" IMBY.

Yep. Picked up just .25" of rain here. Everything has been going around this area.