Blizzard of 93

12z AI EPS is colder than the regular EPS at 360.

12z EPS surface temps are near normal in the east at 360.

See you in mid March sir. We are not done tracking yet!

6z GFS at this model cycle offers our best hope for some snow early next week. It takes the first wave on Monday to our south, but it quickly brings in the second wave by Tuesday am. This second wave starts as snow & then changes over to a mix then rain.

Early next week will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Models today seem to be juicing up the second wave on Tuesday, but the cold may not hold enough causing snow to mix to rain depending on the timing, intensity & track.

18z Euro, AI Euro, EPS & AI EPS each keep us in the game for snow chances early next week. Still lots of disagreement on strength & position of the High & the strength & latitude of the wave or waves as they approach our region.

Overnight ensembles still say that we have a chance for Winter weather early next week. Ops continue to waffle back & forth. Let’s see what 12z says later on.

MDT is at 23.8 as of today, which is 1 inch above normal for the season to date. We still have 5 realistic weeks to score more snow. Hopefully we score enough early next week to get to climo average. Then, anything after that would be gravy if we can get one more window later in March. This Winter deserves to have us at least at normal snow, so hopefully we get there.

Good write up from Mt. Holly on the early next week potential… However, a front will send more cold air into the region later Sunday, and hot on its heals some guidance depicts a wave of low pressure riding eastward into the region for Monday. With fresh cold air in place, more wintry weather is certainly possible. Guidance is having trouble with handling multiple pieces of energy, with some models showing multiple waves, while others focus on just one, but suffice it to say, there is a risk of wintry weather Monday and Tuesday. One notable trend in our favor is that most guidance does show a warming trend as the system moves through, such that towards mid-week we should mostly be too warm for anything but rain. We may have several inches of snow to get through before then, however. We`ll be watching this one closely for potential headlines.

The latest 3 Major ensembles each get solid Advisory level snow to all of CTP by Tuesday afternoon. The main takeaway is that we are certainly in the game for an event chance early next week.

Early next week still looks very interesting on the GFS & most ensembles. Timing of the cold press from the approaching High & the strength of the wave will determine if we have the chance to score meaningful snow. Hopefully this trends favorably for us.

No dusting or evidence of any flakes here last night either. The Old line “Never count on a Clipper” rings true again.

Lol, just what they needed…

18z Euro brings a coating to many of us by tomorrow am with the overnight Clipper.

Lol, come on now, I went lower than many in the January storm forecast contest for MDT & won it with my 12.5 guess. You would have won the contest this time if we had done one this past weekend. I look forward to the next chance!