Blizzard of 93

0z Canadian also has this second potential for next Friday night as well.

0z GFS says we might have Another event to track next Friday. This second late week chance looks to be gaining traction on recent model runs.

Great GFS run for CTP. Warning snow potential gets down to Lancaster & York as well this run.

Please bring me this 0z RGEM

Looks like @Voyager would be near the bullseye if this verifies.

Snow will certainly be sticking to all surfaces if the rates on the 18z GFS end up close to reality. Great run for most of CTP.

In @canderson Heat Island of downtown Harrisburg, I’ve heard him claim snow is not sticking, even though 99% of roads in the area have caved, lol!

Sun angle is not an issue in early December.

A compromise blend of the 12z globals would make most of us happy on Tuesday.

12z Euro shows a plowable Advisory event type of snow event for the LSV this run for Tuesday.

Yes indeed! This would make most of us get off to a great start to Winter if it comes close to verifying. I like the timing as well with the onset & thump in the early am.

I like this part of CTP’s discussion! At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather will continue into the first week of December as cold air in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains should keep cold air in place on the northern side of the precipitation shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move out of the Gulf. This system should move northeast around the base of the aforementioned high pressure system, bringing increasing moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. The system at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with the lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance of the system. Despite the expected fast forward movement, a deepening coastal low could still provide enough forcing juxtaposed with favorable upper jet dynamics to produce significant snowfall across the region. Snow looks to arrive later Monday night and lift across the region during the day on Monday. The eventual track and intensity of the low will have big implications on observed snowfall totals and the northward extent of any mix/rain scenarios. The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%) across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a 30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast PA. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ continue to outline probabilities <30% with a higher likelihood in northeast PA up through coastal New England. If confidence increases in higher amounts, Watches may be needed in the next 24-48 hours. At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region. Continue to monitor the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

CTP’s forecast discussion is very detailed this morning for the Tuesday potential.

He is typically forecasting for Lanco, which is very much on the fence for Tuesday. I think 90% of CTP is in good shape for our first measurable to plowable event of the season on Tuesday.