Blizzard of 93

Early next week will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Models today seem to be juicing up the second wave on Tuesday, but the cold may not hold enough causing snow to mix to rain depending on the timing, intensity & track.

18z Euro, AI Euro, EPS & AI EPS each keep us in the game for snow chances early next week. Still lots of disagreement on strength & position of the High & the strength & latitude of the wave or waves as they approach our region.

Overnight ensembles still say that we have a chance for Winter weather early next week. Ops continue to waffle back & forth. Let’s see what 12z says later on.

MDT is at 23.8 as of today, which is 1 inch above normal for the season to date. We still have 5 realistic weeks to score more snow. Hopefully we score enough early next week to get to climo average. Then, anything after that would be gravy if we can get one more window later in March. This Winter deserves to have us at least at normal snow, so hopefully we get there.

Good write up from Mt. Holly on the early next week potential… However, a front will send more cold air into the region later Sunday, and hot on its heals some guidance depicts a wave of low pressure riding eastward into the region for Monday. With fresh cold air in place, more wintry weather is certainly possible. Guidance is having trouble with handling multiple pieces of energy, with some models showing multiple waves, while others focus on just one, but suffice it to say, there is a risk of wintry weather Monday and Tuesday. One notable trend in our favor is that most guidance does show a warming trend as the system moves through, such that towards mid-week we should mostly be too warm for anything but rain. We may have several inches of snow to get through before then, however. We`ll be watching this one closely for potential headlines.

The latest 3 Major ensembles each get solid Advisory level snow to all of CTP by Tuesday afternoon. The main takeaway is that we are certainly in the game for an event chance early next week.

Early next week still looks very interesting on the GFS & most ensembles. Timing of the cold press from the approaching High & the strength of the wave will determine if we have the chance to score meaningful snow. Hopefully this trends favorably for us.

No dusting or evidence of any flakes here last night either. The Old line “Never count on a Clipper” rings true again.

Lol, just what they needed…

18z Euro brings a coating to many of us by tomorrow am with the overnight Clipper.

Lol, come on now, I went lower than many in the January storm forecast contest for MDT & won it with my 12.5 guess. You would have won the contest this time if we had done one this past weekend. I look forward to the next chance!

I think we have a long way to go until true Spring arrives this season. We have a few potential Winter events to track through next week. Then, we likely warm up for a week to 10 days. After that, the Teleconnections & MJO forecast indicate that mid March through at least early April could be a return to a colder pattern with the trough in the east. I think we are tracking Winter storm chances through Easter week in early April this year. It fits the same pattern that we have had since around Thanksgiving. Any warm ups have been brief & i think that continues.

Early next week still looks interesting on most models for a snow to mix scenario with a wave approaching from the center of the country.

As @Mount Joy Snowman mentioned, most overnight models shifted south overnight for the Thursday potential light event chance, but close enough to keep an eye on. The 6z AI Euro & AI GFS are much closer for Thursday.

The 0z NAM & 0z GFS both bring snow to southern PA for the Thursday chance.