superjames1992

The NAM looked pretty mixy to me. 850-700 mb thicknesses looked problematic outside the mountains. Maybe I didn't look close enough.

The NAM is good at spotting those and I've noticed a lot of our storms have warm noses in the 700-800 mb range that you won't pick up on the "normal" 850 mb 0C charts (or on the clown maps). Soundings are important. I think my call for the Triad at this point would be for 6-8" snow/sleet with freezing rain on top. A lot of storms end up in that range in the area.

I'm betting rates will overcome all down here in Florida. The 10-15C low-level and BL temps shouldn't be an issue with the sick dynamic cooling we're going to get!!!!!

Take the warmest model and add 1C. Take the driest model and slash that by 50%. There's your forecast. Kidding...hopefully...

I would say the NAM usually does a good job with mid-level thermals with these systems, so there's a chance it's on to something. We've all been burned by those warm noses many times... Of course, it's pretty far out still to really trust the NAM, but closer in it will be interesting.

The storm is still 3-4 days out, so there’s plenty of time for this one to head south in a big way. It’s not like we haven’t seen that song and dance before... Not that I expect that to happen here, but there’s always that chance. I would imagine there’s going to be some sneaky warm noses, maybe in the 750ish mb range, that are going to cause more sleet than some might expect. That seems so common with these systems. I know I’ve seen many storms in GSO where there would be 12-24” gaudy clown map totals for days leading up to the storm only to end up with 6-8” of snow/sleet because of that mixing. Which is still a nice storm, mind you.. The NAM seems like it usually does a good job with the mid-level thermals, so that’s probably one to pay attention to when we get closer (<48 hours).

At least you get nice summers. Summer is a nightmare here. Winter must be brutal there, though. Cold and it gets dark so early in Northern Europe, yet no snow... Winter is pretty nice here temperature-wise, but I miss the snow. I need to make it to Amsterdam sometime. I haven’t yet made it to any of the Benelux countries for some reason, though I’ve been in every adjacent country. I know you’ve been there for awhile, but are you there permanently or will you be moving back at some point?

But soil temps! And the Gulf is warm! But yeah, it’s fairly chilly in the leadup to this one and this is nearly the perfect time of year with regards to the sun angle, so it shouldn’t have much trouble sticking, especially with the higher rates that look likely.

Looks like another winter storm I'm going to miss. There's been some good ones for GSO since I moved away. Looks like there's a chance this could be a real mauler there, although I suspect it will end up being some snow with a pingerfest for most of it. We'll see. Seems to be the way these things go, but 3-6" and a ton of sleet is still a big deal. The northern mountains look really nice... Looks like there's a lot of moisture, so places that do stay mostly snow should get a lot. But WAA! CONVECTIVE BANDING! ETC! Looks like just a lot or rain here. Not even a particularly cold rain.

That's an increase from 100 MPH at 5 PM, correct?

The 11 AM advisory has Florence down to 105 MPH maximum sustained winds, though the pressure also dropped slightly.

The 00z GFS looks like a monster rainmaker for NC. Looks like 12”+ from roughly the Triad eastward. A step up from 18z and a huge step up from prior runs before 18z yesterday, especially for central NC.

Yeah, I remember just yesterday the NHC was forecasting this thing to ramp up to 140-155 MPH leading up to landfall (though weakening as it got closer to the coast), so it’s definitely a lot weaker than expected, at least as far as maximum sustained winds go. As it is, it’s down to category 2 and they aren’t forecasting it to make it back to a major hurricane now. Of course, they could just as easily be wrong and underdo the winds now, but we usually tend to see storms weaken as they close in on the coast, not strengthen.

Certainly, and that’s well within the NHC cone. Pretty sizable shift on the track tonight, and one that would probably spare Raleigh to some extent, I would expect. It will be interesting to see how/if the still develops. It almost seems too wonky to be legitimate on some of the models, but we’ve seen similar things before (I.e. Harvey).

I'm going to be in Greensboro this weekend. The clipper, even though it'll probably end in heartbreak, looks intriguing.

It sucks living down here as a snow lover. Missing out on the January storm last year sucked since that was the biggest snowstorm since 2002! Good luck up there! Looks like it should be a good one! A solid warning-criteria event, at least, and potentially something more memorable.

I miss snow.

Looks like DC is getting good snow this morning.

I believe they got over 6" in the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm of 2010. And before that, January 2009.

You guys did really well in January 2009, as well.

You could add January 2013, February 2012, and January 2011 to this list, as well.

3-6” for DC somehow, some way with this one, you just know it.

A Mt. Airy jackpot is still very possible. I don't know how, but Frosty has stopped in and said that this isn't his storm and wished luck to folks to his south and east. This is usually the course things take before Frosty ends up getting snowed in.

Banking on impressive ratios usually leads to disappointment. It sure doesn't look like our normal slop for most, but I wouldn't bank on much better than 10:1. Something always seems to go wrong to hamper ratios in the South, even in cold storms.

It’s always fun to see how much Fishel and WRAL are discussed on this board.