superjames1992

The 00z GFS looks like a monster rainmaker for NC. Looks like 12”+ from roughly the Triad eastward. A step up from 18z and a huge step up from prior runs before 18z yesterday, especially for central NC.

Yeah, I remember just yesterday the NHC was forecasting this thing to ramp up to 140-155 MPH leading up to landfall (though weakening as it got closer to the coast), so it’s definitely a lot weaker than expected, at least as far as maximum sustained winds go. As it is, it’s down to category 2 and they aren’t forecasting it to make it back to a major hurricane now. Of course, they could just as easily be wrong and underdo the winds now, but we usually tend to see storms weaken as they close in on the coast, not strengthen.

Certainly, and that’s well within the NHC cone. Pretty sizable shift on the track tonight, and one that would probably spare Raleigh to some extent, I would expect. It will be interesting to see how/if the still develops. It almost seems too wonky to be legitimate on some of the models, but we’ve seen similar things before (I.e. Harvey).

I'm going to be in Greensboro this weekend. The clipper, even though it'll probably end in heartbreak, looks intriguing.

It sucks living down here as a snow lover. Missing out on the January storm last year sucked since that was the biggest snowstorm since 2002! Good luck up there! Looks like it should be a good one! A solid warning-criteria event, at least, and potentially something more memorable.

I miss snow.

Looks like DC is getting good snow this morning.

I believe they got over 6" in the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm of 2010. And before that, January 2009.

You guys did really well in January 2009, as well.

You could add January 2013, February 2012, and January 2011 to this list, as well.

3-6” for DC somehow, some way with this one, you just know it.

A Mt. Airy jackpot is still very possible. I don't know how, but Frosty has stopped in and said that this isn't his storm and wished luck to folks to his south and east. This is usually the course things take before Frosty ends up getting snowed in.

Banking on impressive ratios usually leads to disappointment. It sure doesn't look like our normal slop for most, but I wouldn't bank on much better than 10:1. Something always seems to go wrong to hamper ratios in the South, even in cold storms.

It’s always fun to see how much Fishel and WRAL are discussed on this board.

The SREFs tend to just follow whatever the previous NAM run did, in my experience.

I'm getting my hopes up for wintry weather and I live in Florida. This is going to end well. Ugh. What's weird is that I need a bit of a NW trend (or just take the NAM/RGEM). Unfortunately, I can't just say "next" down here since the next legitimate threat might not happen again for years...not that I'll necessarily live here that long.

I have to cherry pick what I can down here in the tropics.

Is Andy Cohen alright?

58 is too cold for snow.

Oh, did he get banned? Kinda feel like this storm might be trending towards a DC Metro bomb.

So the German model looks like a low-key January 2000? Wonder what the Gambian model says?

Damn near a Waycross special on the 00z Euro.

Pretty soon 40 will be too cold for snow in the South, and then what?

I think the 18z NAVGEM may have showed snow here based on the crude maps I looked at. Book it.

I’m feeling January 2000 vibes with this NYD event.