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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    OHX just issued a WWA for most of the midstate. Bizarre looking advisory area based on the probabilities. Like Bearman mentioned, hate that most of this may be FZRA. While surface temps may verify on the under, I don't see thermals a couple thousand feet up cooperating. What a mess! Hopefully, trends will be wetter or snowier.
  2. *Flash*
  3. *Flash*
    Yeah, this is up there for me along with 2/4/96, 1/16/03, and 1/22/16. Definitely a top 3-4 snow in 30 years living in TN. We had great winter storms in 1994, 2008, 2010-11, and February 2015/2021...but many of them had ice cut into totals. In terms of pure snow, this is up there with the greatest hits.
  4. *Flash*
    Up to 7" of snow in the Bluff as of 1:30 pm CT.
  5. *Flash*
    So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro at least for my area...
  6. *Flash*
    Good morning! I woke up at 6:15 pm CT to 4.1" in White Bluff. We're now at 5.5-6". MUCH more than I expected...
  7. *Flash*
    Judging by the reflectivity and what's fallen so far, should be at an inch within the next 30. Ratios doing there thing here.
  8. *Flash*
    Snow officially underway in White Bluff. A few tenths of an inch already!
  9. *Flash*
    CMC and HRRR with slight NW trends. For Nashville metro, you take the 15z HRRR over 12z 10/10. Hopefully, the extent of the NW precip shield expands to include more of the populace. Still worried about dry air north of 40/west of 65. Regardless, that 700 jet will be howling over my location.
  10. *Flash*
    Updated call from my guy, Bobby Boyd. This looks about right. @jaxjagman, I'll be riding this out about 4-5 miles SE of Brentwood.
  11. *Flash*
    You're welcome!
  12. *Flash*
    I so want to buy this...
  13. *Flash*
    Theme of the day: It depends, haha. One thing I can appreciate with these threats: For west/middle TN, the microclimatology is relatively less complex compared to east TN. Plenty of secondhand learning with many on here on or east of the plateau. That’s a silver lining when these threads emerge. P.S. The ICON from earlier was only mentioned in passing for having the most coast to coast purple. In Union City traveling today and my car is already white from the salt, lol.
  14. *Flash*
    I just want to cash out on the 18z Icon. Too good to be true, I know.
  15. *Flash*
    The battle continues. Not sure I’ve ever seen such a contrast between the global models and the hi resolution models. I already feel like the forum has laid the premise for what will be a fascinating case study when all is said and done.
  16. *Flash*
    18z HRRR looks decent for west/middle TN. A sigh of relief for now. I imagine this is the time we should start focusing more on short term resolution guidance.
  17. *Flash*
    I’m just terrified of the prospect of having brutal cold with no snow to show for it. May have to chase with the kiddos on this one.
  18. *Flash*
    Whoops. Sorry, I missed that update.
  19. *Flash*
    The magnitude of that SE jog just seems overdone. Tempted to write it off as too exaggerated, granted suppression tendencies make sense. If you’re in middle TN, check out Bobby Boyd’s Twitter. Great content on there. Here’s hoping there are NO more SE trends so major TN metros can score.
  20. *Flash*
    New model run per my offspring. Basically a composite of what we saw yesterday.
  21. *Flash*
    I actually did slightly better with the March 2022 event than December 2022 so I'll take this recent analog. Like you, I'm reserving excitement until I see the white of this storm's eyes. Lucy has the signed document in hand but she hasn't notarized it yet. P.S. To those whom this applies, take your work laptops home with this weekend...just in case.
  22. *Flash*
    You and me both. Even Dickson County north of 40 does well on this one.
  23. *Flash*
    I agree. I'm not so concerned about tracks and placements right now since the colors signal the significance..at least for now. I think for many of us the next few weeks, we have big daddy potential(s) within reasonable snow-chasing limits (which for me in western mid TN is 3+" within <3 hours of drive time), if not our own locales. 2023 was a rough year for a lot of reasons. No measurable snow for the calendar year (outside the 1" of total storm ice late January) added insult to injury. Already I feel like this thread is a good omen to this year being better than last.
  24. *Flash*
    Here's OHX's chart recapping December 2023. Pretty much went as expected. Funny how +3 in a winter weather month can seem so seasonal these days, though part of that is due to recency bias (in December's case, 2015 and 2021 were blowtorchy, 2019 wasn't far behind). Given the ENSO state in light of the climate era we’re in, I'll take a December that failed to crack the Top 20 warmest of all-time and run with it. 'Twas also a minor miracle we cracked 3" of rain for the month. Still have a long way to go to cure the drought conditions around here.
  25. *Flash*
    Good points. I think if the system overachieves in the TN valleys tomorrow, this will be one of the reasons why. There was an event early January 2010 in which middle TN scored a surprise due to moisture fetch from the Great Lakes. It's not out of the realm of possibility.
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