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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    I like the GFS' moxy of late. Just concerned the Euro may be painting a more realistic solution for middle TN. Not a huge ran of ice but I'll take a wintry mix over just plain ol' cold rain.
  2. *Flash*
    So true! Ensembles have been generally cooler than the deterministic. Can't live run to run on deterministics alone.
  3. *Flash*
    My gut instinct...a little bit of both. Raw memory applied...some of the most memorable February's were amplified and variable. 2003/2015*/2021...maybe not so much but certainly 1996/2011 for middle TN. Either way, I think most of us would take a solid two-week stretch at any point between now and March 15 after a lost January. As bad as 2015-16 was, all it took was Jonas to make up the difference...granted the ENSO was radically different. Bottom line: Our windows don't have to be large for us to capitalize. Fingers crossed, we'll get into a battle zone so we can score some threat threads at the very least. *Speaking of winter 2014-15, I remember thinking around 1/31/15 that winter was over for our area (actually snow chased up past Mount Vernon that day to scratch the snow withdrawal itch). Then the bottom fell out by mid-February for a couple rounds of snow/ice. Especially for northern middle TN/southern KY, February 2015 was a much bigger hit than February 2021.
  4. *Flash*
    Taking the kiddos to southern IL Wednesday. Does anyone from that area know of any good sledding hills/destinations? Thanks in advance!
  5. *Flash*
    Taking the kiddos to southern IL Wednesday. Does anyone from that area know of any good sledding hills/destinations? Thanks in advance!
  6. *Flash*
    Yep! Taken verbatim, that's WWA criteria for northern middle TN but barely. The gradient is really steep on the SE side of the transition zone. Upper plateau looks to be sitting better on the GFS compared to the 0z Euro. Trying to figure out if I chase to Mount Vernon or Evansville next Wednesday.
  7. *Flash*
    Thanks, Carver. Still hoping the 24-26th system brings some fun and games for N/NW portions of our forum. Per the latest Euro, I'm still not giving up hope.
  8. *Flash*
    Thinking about doing a potential Nashville (TN) to Nashville (IN) snowchase next week. I know a threat is still several days out but wanted to gauge local confidence before confirming any plans. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023012000&fh=240&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=
  9. *Flash*
    Not at a place where I can check modeling. Is west/mid TN in play for the 25th?
  10. *Flash*
    Not to conjure up bad memories for some on this forum but Happy 20th Anniversary of the January 16, 2003 event. Hard to believe it's been that long. I don't know if there's a poll question on here...but for middle TN, would you take Winter Storm Jonas, any snow from 2010/2011 or the 2003 storm? As much as I like surprises, give me Jonas all day long. I think we as a metro were able to apply lessons learned from '03 and '11 and fared much better in '16.
  11. *Flash*
    West/central TN can work with a +AO but that combo...yeahhh, not so much. If you had a strong enough +PNA or -EPO, we've seen that overcome a +AO/+NAO for our region. Windows will eventually come...but I wonder if they'll be the separate week-long variety as opposed to a 2+ week type.
  12. *Flash*
    DT sounds super defeated in this video. I know his perspective is largely Hampton Roads based. It's been rough but he's talking like there's no light on the horizon.
  13. *Flash*
    Per Carver's post on Friday, CFS laughs in the face of anyone hoping for a #wintercancel. Per Chris Bailey on kyweathercenter: "The more I look at the setup ahead, the more I think my winter forecast is going to be wrong. I was going for the earlier start than normal to spring. The upcoming pattern has more of a late winter vibe from February 2021. My winter analogs had the past two winters on the list. So far, the first part of winter has been a battle between the two. Both featured some second half of winter fun and games. Obviously, no one wants a repeat of what February of 2021 brought and I’m not saying that’s ahead. I’m saying the setup for a prolonged period of winter weather that lasts into early spring is showing up."
  14. *Flash*
    Glad there’s still a modicum of hope on the horizon. Crazy to think it’s just January 7. I keep living two weeks in the future in a pattern like this.
  15. *Flash*
    Yeah, I'm still optimistic we'll see some fun 'n games in February at the very least. Just don't mention SOI around Webber.
  16. *Flash*
    Yikes! Good to know that winter is over and that I don't have to worry about checking forums the next few months. In all seriousness, Carver, we all appreciate you. Telling it as it is objectively with reasonable pathways to hope is partly what makes this forum an upgrade from others tailored to more subjective banter.
  17. *Flash*
    We can work with a neutral or -PNA and hope we get favorable Omega block orientations. Problem is I don't see any teleconnection support for western/eastern troughs simultaneously at this time (apart from what we hope verifies). I think Holston's post from earlier is somewhat an antidote to Huffman's post. If primary modeling struggles to capture a Pineapple Express deceleration, makes sense to see D11-15 inconsistency and waffling. Either way, I'm taking a DT approach for now and crossing my fingers. Hopefully whatever week 2-3 clarity we glean in the short term will prove educational at the very least.
  18. *Flash*
    Lots of people cliff-jumping over in SouthernWx this week. I'm guessing things are looking a tad brighter for us in TN/KY as opposed to NC/SE/GA?
  19. *Flash*
    Ended up with about 1.1-1.2" in the Bluff. Took the kiddos out one at a time for 5 minutes intervals. Trying to offload my Titans tickets for tomorrow as I'm just not in the mood to be miserable as they lose to an inferior Texans team.
  20. *Flash*
    Gotta think solutions may trend colder assuming that Aleutian ridge can combine with what to me seems like the biggest player on the board, the -NAO. We saw several winters last decade where a -EPO and/or a +PNA helped our region out when the NAO was neutral or positive. Feels like the opposite setup here. Hopefully, the -NAO blocking holds strong this winter so we're not continually grasping at straws overanalyzing what the QBO/MJO is doing, granted I note the MJO is projected to weaken. We'll see. Perhaps the NAO will skew negative on the mean but due to the wPAC teleconnections, won't allow troughs to dig as far south and inhibit moisture potential after this wet stretch. Either way, I'm still slightly optimistic at the moment. A mixed bag for sure...but such a better look compared to last December.
  21. *Flash*
    So by now, we all know March will come in like a lamb. The questions I'm getting from colleagues concern if we'll see severe and/or more winter weather in the near future. Oddly, while I think the lion will eventually come, I'm not seeing evidence to either apart from more heaving rain March 5-12. Personally, I would love one more winter weather event even if it means a plateau chase. Severe weather...I'm rooting for a quiet year. 2020 and 2021 have been brutal years for middle Tennessee.
  22. *Flash*
    Just got home from Kingston Springs. Went from just cold rain to glazy conditions in the Bluff. Hard surfaces are pretty slick though the roads are okay. That elevation change coming up Snake Hill (popular route to Montgomery Bell State Park from the I-40 MM188 exit) is fascinating if you're into microclimatology. Note: Per NWS grids, we weren't expected to receive any freezing rain at my location so I would say this system is overperforming so far.
  23. *Flash*
    12z ECMWF isn't anything to write home about. Basically, a dry NW flow with a few dusting clippers. We'd be relying on overperforming flizzards akin to last week or phasing to offset restricted moisture supply. We'll see if something trackable for next week remerges. As John recently mentioned, local climo suggests the second week of February can get interesting. Unfortunately, my gut says we're dealing with a placement with teleconnection issue as opposed to a 'models lost the system in the midrange' issue. I sure hope I'm wrong. Despite hitting double digits in total snow this winter, I wouldn't mind another hit before spring.
  24. *Flash*
    Honestly, I would not have guessed BNA would be doing better snow total-wise than many along I-44 heading across I-70 into Indiana. This won't hold up...but for now, it's an interesting map in time.
  25. *Flash*
    Did a lot of driving today. Only a few inches in Kingston Springs currently. 4” of snow/ice/snow at my home in White Bluff. Very cool layering! As you head down 840 towards Spring Hill, amounts pick up around MM 12 near the trace. Noticed 4-5” of snow off Carter’s Creek...and that was several hours ago. These amounts may be overalls for central/northern Hickman + southern Dickson. Southwestern Williamson down towards Lewis County did quite well. Get ready for 8-10” reports down that way. Hearing reports of 2-3” in central Williamson between 10-12 pm CT. The middle TN accumulation maps from this event will be fascinating due to elevation/warm nose/ULL proximity dichotomies. I know 95% of this forum is east TN based but figured I’d let the other 5% in on this in case they want to do some PM chasing west of 65.
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